The SPY and QQQ found support at their 10-EMAs on Thursday morning and rallied throughout the day. Right now, it looks like the market wants to push to another all-time high and continue adding to these divergences. I still do not think the QQQ target of $767, which is the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, is off the table before any larger drawdown. That would imply roughly another 3% upside from current levels before a more meaningful correction begins.

We saw several key support levels hold on Thursday, and as long as we get some follow-through buying, I think another push higher to start out June is very possible.

QQQ Daily Chart

GOOGL: Fifth Wave in Play

For that scenario to play out, I would like to see GOOGL hold its recent low and push into a new high. It narrowly missed its gap fill this week before bouncing from a major support level. I think we could be in a fifth-wave move that has the potential to carry up toward $430. Another 15% move higher in one of the largest companies in the world would certainly not be bearish for the broader market.

The trade thesis on GOOGL is now based on several factors lining up at once: the anchored VWAP, the earnings gap, the volume trap, and the Elliott Wave count. GOOGL retraced to the 38.2% level of the first through third waves, which is a classic support zone for a fourth-wave pullback. It helps that the anchored VWAP from the low and a strong earnings gap also sit in that area.

Remember, earnings were very solid just a few weeks ago, and this was essentially a retest of that bullish retest gap. Thursday’s bullish candle also closed back above the second-largest bearish volume candle on the chart in 2026. That says that bears are now trapped.

There is still significant resistance around $380, but if GOOGL can push through that level, I think it has room to make a strong run to complete this wave structure. If it breaks below $355, however, that would be an early warning sign that a larger top may have formed and that a deeper correction is underway. A break below the 100-day SMA would further increase the probability that the current wave has topped and needs a more substantial retracement.

GOOGL Daily Chart

MU: Wave 5 of 5 of 5 or 3

If we are talking Elliott Wave setups, MU has one of the cleanest patterns I have seen in a long time, and it has now rallied directly into a very common fifth-wave target zone.

One way to project a fifth-wave target is by measuring the entire net move leading into the wave and applying Fibonacci extensions. I have had this level marked on my MU chart for months, and it landed right around $1,071, an area the stock tagged this week before rejecting.

What makes this even more interesting is that we now have five waves up from the April low, and the final fifth wave itself appears to contain five smaller waves. In other words, we may be looking at wave 5 of 5 of 5 within a larger wave 3 structure.

Of course, parabolic moves can continue longer than anyone expects and completely ignore Fibonacci levels, as it has throughout this rally. But I think this setup is worth paying attention to because a larger correction in MU would likely have implications for the broader market.

I know my man Jerremy Newsome also snagged some puts on Thursday’s gap-down. I like the short setup here as long as risk is managed very tightly. Keep in mind earnings are only about 20 days away, so there is not much time before that catalyst arrives.

MU Daily Chart

Clash of the Titans

NVDA once again held key support on Thursday, but it is definitely testing that level repeatedly. A break below $210 would not be good for the bulls. We are seeing pockets of weakness develop among the Trillion Dollar Titans and, of course, across much of the market outside of technology as well.

MSFT has given back a large portion of its recent gains, and I am glad I took profits when I did because I no longer see much edge in that chart. AMZN is hanging onto its anchored VWAP from the lows by a thread, and if that level breaks, I think it could see a fairly quick drop to the gaps below.

AVGO gapped down directly into support and held, at least for now. I still do not have a strong read on that chart, but a close below Thursday’s candle would be a bearish development for sure.

Then there is META, which seems completely incapable of reclaiming either its daily or weekly 100 SMA.

Bitcoin: Approaching Interesting Levels

I will have a full Bitcoin video out tomorrow, but here is the short version of my current thinking.

Bitcoin is now trading around its 200-week SMA, a historically important support level where bear markets have often started to bottom. While wicks below this area are common, this zone has consistently served as a major long-term support level. In prior cycles, including 2015, 2020, and 2022, Bitcoin pushed through similar support zones by as much as 30% before ultimately bottoming.

Back in August 2025, I wrote that Bitcoin was much closer to a major top than most people realized. For the first time, I am starting to feel the opposite.

I do not think Bitcoin has bottomed yet. In fact, I think there is a high probability we see at least the mid-$50,000s before this bear market is over. However, we are starting to approach levels where bullish swing trades and longer-term position trades begin to have edge once again, especially for traders who are comfortable managing risk through covered calls, protective puts, and collar strategies.

Looking at the massive head-and-shoulders pattern, the measured move target points almost directly into the $53,000 area. That level also happens to line up with a major horizontal support zone. In addition, the $54,000 area is near Bitcoin’s Realized Price, a metric that has historically been tested during every major bear market.

If Bitcoin breaks below the 200-week SMA, retests it from underneath, and fails, the $54,000 area becomes the start of my accumulation zone for longer-term positions.

Could Bitcoin fall even further? Absolutely.

I think there is a realistic possibility that Bitcoin drops all the way into $38,000. That would undercut the IBIT lows and fit the historical tendency of many major technology IPOs to retrace their entire initial move before establishing a durable bottom. The 100-month SMA also resides in that area, making it an extremely compelling long-term support zone.

If Bitcoin gets there, the narrative will be awful. “Bitcoin is dead” will dominate headlines, sentiment will be crushed, and fear will likely be at extreme levels.

Historically, that has been the perfect recipe for a major Bitcoin bottom.

For now, my base case remains a move into at least the mid-$50,000s sometime between July and October before this bear market fully runs its course.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

After another blistering two week run higher in SPY following our meager three-day pullback, it looks like some selling and profit-taking may finally be showing up. As I mentioned in my Monday afternoon swing trading video, I took profits on a number of positions, including MSFT, AMZN, and FIVN, which has brought my cash position up considerably.

I know I risk sounding like a total idiot here given the last couple months of price action, but markets do not go straight up forever. They need pullbacks and profit-taking to stay healthy. Once things get considerably overheated, when the declines do come, they are often deeper and more violent than most expect. When it feels impossible for the market to ever go down, that is usually about the time it starts going down.

It is hard for me to believe that with everyone saying “buy memory, buy MU, and you will crush it,” that MU and memory names do not see some kind of meaningful drawdown to flush out the FOMO buyers.

One rule of thumb I like to use is that when I start feeling invincible, when every trade is working and working quickly, it is probably time to tighten stops, take profits, and become more cautious. That mentality has certainly cost me some upside, especially during this vertical market, but risk mitigation and capital preservation are my full-time job. That is a trade-off I am willing to make.

We are seeing RSI divergence on SPY right now, and many of the Trillion Dollar Titans are beginning to look a bit tired. Semiconductors continue to hold up, and the market can obviously remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent, which is why I am not shorting the sector. But with the types of moves we are seeing in ARM, MRVL, and MU, it feels like we are in the midst of a blow-off top.

To be crystal clear, I am not shorting into strength on any of these names. I am simply stating that these hardware stocks are extremely overheated. If we lose leadership from that sector, there is not much left holding this market up, and we could see a pretty decent correction in SPY. When SPY is down only 0.7% on the day and many high-beta momentum names are already giving back double digits, it is not hard to imagine the damage if SPY were to correct 5%. A lot of those momentum names would likely see significant pain as traders rush to the exit at the same time.

The $730 level remains the major support on SPY, and that is still roughly 3% below Wednesday’s close. If we do begin a correction here, I think it could take on a bit of a head-and-shoulders look, where we find support in the $730’s, bounce into a lower high, and then break down.

The amount of buy-the-dip enthusiasm out there right now is incredible. The appetite for risk is ferocious. Fear is going to have to enter the market before that changes, and key support levels breaking down would be the first step toward that.

Do not take the start of this newsletter as me becoming long-term bearish on the market. Of course, a larger top could form, and I will continue monitoring for signs of a bigger correction. But for now, I still view any larger dip as a buying opportunity and will continue treating pullbacks as buyable events until my more important support levels break.

SPY Daily Chart

Charting Amazon & Google

AMZN and GOOGL, two of the companies I trade most actively, are great examples of this mindset. Both remain in strong long-term uptrends and are well-positioned for the AI Revolution.

Both charts are showing somewhat bearish double-top formations on the daily timeframe, but both also have strong support zones below that create attractive risk-versus-reward setups.

Let’s start with AMZN.

If the double top on AMZN plays out, which will be confirmed if it retests the $255 level and fails, I think there is a good chance it eventually works its way back toward the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Those moving averages also line up with two important gaps, making that entire area a significant support zone.

Trading below the daily 200-day SMA is never ideal in the short term, so that is a natural level to manage risk beneath. I am not calling for that now, but I like preparing trades weeks and months in advance so that if a scenario does develop, I can act with conviction rather than emotion.

Zooming out, AMZN has traded within a parallel channel for the last four years. The lower trendline of that channel lines up nicely with the gap that started this entire move higher as well as the 100-week SMA.

If AMZN were to pull back to that level, sentiment would likely be extremely bearish. Yet it would only represent about a 23% decline from the highs, which is actually a very normal and healthy correction for a stock like AMZN.

If that setup develops, I will look to establish a larger position there while knowing that a break below $210 would be a serious violation of long-term support and a level where I would want to hedge, protect, or stop out.

AMZN Daily Chart

GOOGL, one of my favorite charts and one of my favorite companies fundamentally, is also displaying a fairly solid topping pattern on the daily chart after hitting the 1.618 extension from the 2026 drop.

Wednesday’s decline brought GOOGL into its anchored VWAP from the March low as well as an earnings gap fill. That entire area, down to the 100-day SMA, represents a strong support zone on one of the best-positioned A.I. companies in the market.

If GOOGL falls to its 100-day SMA, that would amount to roughly a 20% correction, which is well within the normal range for the stock. If it breaks below that level, I will hedge because it opens the door to more bearish possibilities and a move down toward the $300 gap, where the 200-day SMA currently resides.

A break below the 200-day SMA would be a much more significant warning sign. It would force me to take a harder look at broader bearish scenarios for both GOOGL and the market as a whole.

GOOGL Daily Chart

Bitcoin

Speaking of bearish scenarios, BTC continued lower this week, which apparently comes as a surprise to anyone who has not been paying attention to my analysis or the chart.

Bitcoin spent most of February through May 6th in a slow, overlapping, choppy uptrend that ultimately stalled right at the 200-day SMA. I sold all of my Bitcoin on May 7th because it seemed to me that history was once again repeating itself.

When Bitcoin forms a slow, overlapping, messy advance after a sharp decline, it has historically been a bear flag more often than not. And bear flags resolve with another leg lower which we are getting right now.

Now we are seeing fear build around MSTR selling Bitcoin and the possibility that they may need to sell more in the future. Much of the bullish price action throughout 2025 was built on MSTR relentlessly buying. If that buyer disappears, or worse, becomes a seller, that fits perfectly with the thesis I have had all along that Bitcoin remains in a bear market until later this fall. This would fit nice and neatly into the four year cycle that everyone seems to forget happens every time.

What is particularly bearish right now is that MSTR itself is currently buying U.S. Treasuries instead of Bitcoin. If Saylor, Bitcoin's biggest public advocate, is not buying Bitcoin right now, that seems like a red flag. After all, he top blasted the chart all of 2025, but apparently 50% off discounts are not his thing.

There is another major problem for Bitcoin right now. Most investors move out on the risk curve and buy Bitcoin to generate outsized returns. But when $200 billion and trillion-dollar companies like SNDK and MU are trading like meme stocks and delivering 100% moves in a matter of weeks, why own a “risky asset” like Bitcoin especially when it is in a downtrend?

Until that dynamic changes, I think Bitcoin remains in this bear market, and the four year cycle continues.

I do believe Bitcoin will enter another major bull cycle just like it has every four years. But for now, I think lower prices are still ahead.

I have held that view since initially selling at $100,000 after the 120-SMA on the three-day chart broke back in November.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

Here is my BTC video from last week where I reviewed all my thoughts on Bitcoin when it was still at $74,000, nearly 20% higher than right now.

Monday marks the start of new weekly and monthly candles. Can you believe we're already in June? This market has not given us more than three consecutive down days since the low, and the rocket ship higher continues.

Last week I mentioned that it is quite possible the SpaceX IPO marks a short-term top in this wild and crazy market, and I still think that theory remains very much in play. That is especially true if we continue grinding higher into the IPO date itself. Even Grok cannot seem to pinpoint exactly when the offering will happen, but it is confident that it is coming sometime in June.

This is very much a trader’s market. What I mean by that is that the amount of edge available in gaps and individual daily price action has been tremendous lately. Full swing trades are playing out in a matter of hours rather than days. The CRWV trade I discussed on Sunday filled and hit target all on Monday for a roughly 10% gain.

I know many of you used my analysis to make that trade your own and absolutely crushed it, so congratulations.

CRWV Daily Chart

Most bullish traders have been on heaters recently. It is easy to start feeling invincible when nearly everything you touch works. That is what an exceptionally strong bull market does. It also makes it incredibly easy to develop FOMO and beat yourself up over missed opportunities.

The reality is that we miss out on trillions of dollars worth of market moves every single day. What matters is not the trades we missed. What matters is our process, identifying high-probability opportunities, and how we manage both our emotions and our risk once we enter a position.

At this point, most of the charts I have been watching closely have either already hit their targets or simply failed to work out. Looking at you, META.

Because of that, I am planning to be more conservative during June.

My primary focus will be on high-quality gap setups that can be traded aggressively as swing trades or day trades. Recent examples include ONDS and CRWV. TWLO is another great example, although unfortunately I did not catch that one. It is one of the best recent examples of a momentum stock consolidating and pulling back into the short term averages before gapping higher and continuing with the bullish momentum.

When I trade these setups, I will generally buy near the open and place my stop either below the 50% gap-fill level or below the entire gap, depending on the size of the gap and the volatility of the stock. From there, I target recent pivot highs, new all-time highs, or my favorite target of all, unfilled gaps.

TWLO Daily Chart

Those are exactly the types of setups I am stalking right now.

I would love to see names like PLTR and RDDT consolidate a bit before launching into their next legs higher. Likewise, I would love to see names like RGTI, which I have recently started adding to, gap out of their current ranges and signal that they are ready for another move higher. These are the kinds of charts that tend to produce some of the best risk-to-reward opportunities when they finally resolve to the upside.

The RBLX Setup

I know this may sound strange because I have spent plenty of time sounding off about how bearish RBLX is since its July 31st blow off earnings candle, but RBLX is actually shaping up to be a potentially high-probability trade. The stock is down nearly 75% since then, so I think it is worth a shot.

I reviewed the stock back in mid-May and it looked decent then, but the consolidation that has developed since then is becoming difficult to ignore.

The stock experienced a significant earnings gap lower one month ago. Price then dropped below the earnings candle, trapping bearish breakdown traders, before recovering and moving sideways within the range for the past month. That type of consolidation following a high-volume event often gets my attention.

If RBLX can gap higher from this area, it could create a high-probability trade targeting the earnings gap near $55. Even if we do not get a gap, a breakout above $48.55 is beginning to look pretty decent from a probability standpoint.

Now, to be clear, RBLX remains in a long-term downtrend. However, it is difficult to ignore the volume that came into the stock following the last earnings report. That kind of activity and volume trap is worth paying attention to.

I will be using relatively tight stops if I decide to trade this setup, but as long as price remains above $42.31, the bullish thesis remains intact.

RBLX Daily Chart

We saw a major rotation come into the market on Friday. Many of the names that had been out of favor finally caught a bid, and I know a lot of us who have been waiting for that rotation into names like MSFT, PLTR, NOW, HOOD, and the software space through IGV had a great day.

SPY once again closed at a new all-time high, and we finished the month with another quite bullish candle on the monthly chart. After posting two strong bullish candles in a row, if this market continues to track the 2024 and 2025 analogs, we should see another positive month ahead, although likely not as strong as April and May.

In the 2025 run, SPY’s third bullish monthly candle gained roughly 2.5%, while in the 2024 run the third bullish candle gained about 1.5%. More importantly, the 2025 rally produced six consecutive bullish monthly candles, while the 2024 rally produced five before finally seeing a bearish month. Based on those analogs, there is no reason to assume this run has to end here.

With money beginning to rotate into software, I can easily see a scenario where capital rotates out of semiconductors and memory names for a few weeks before eventually rotating back in. That kind of rotation would create an environment where the market continues grinding higher throughout the summer, even if leadership changes beneath the surface.

My SPY targets remain $810 and $825, which would imply another 7% to 10% upside move from current levels. Those targets continue to fit very closely with both the 2024 and 2025 analogs.

SPY Monthly Chart

AVGO will be the biggest earnings reports of the week when it reports after the bell on Wednesday. The stock has spent roughly the last 30 trading days consolidating within a large parallel channel and should easily break out of that pattern on any decent gap in either direction.

Friday’s candle was particularly bullish. AVGO printed a large bullish candle on strong volume and closed at a fresh all-time high. If the stock were to reverse and lose Friday’s candle, that would be pretty bearish. A move below $404 would increase the odds that this lengthy consolidation at the highs was actually distribution rather than accumulation.

For now, however, everything about this chart suggests it wants to move higher. Earnings will ultimately be the deciding factor.

AVGO Daily Chart

I think names like MSFT could easily continue straight toward their targets this week. Now that MSFT has reclaimed the 100-week SMA, any retest of Friday’s candle could present an opportunity to add to positions with a stop placed below Friday’s low for a trade targeting the gap fill overhead.

As I have been saying for months, I continue to believe there is a high probability that MSFT eventually pushes into the $480 area. Most investors who want exposure should already be long, but for those feeling some FOMO, there may still be an opportunity. It is certainly not as attractive as when I first highlighted the setup on May 7, but there could still be room left in the move for an aggressive trader.

MSFT Daily Chart

As you know, I love trading gaps, and I especially love trading gaps out of consolidation patterns. ONDS gave us a great example on Thursday of just how powerful a gap out of a consolidation range can be.

For that reason, I am watching CRWV very closely this week. Ideally, I would like to see another week or so of consolidation beneath the $110 level before the stock finally gaps higher. That would create a very clean setup.

That said, even if CRWV gaps above $110.50 on Monday, I will still be looking at it as a potential bullish trade targeting the $125 gap fill with a tight stop. The chart is setting up nicely, and I will continue monitoring it closely. For now, $110.50 remains the key resistance level that I want to see cleared.

CRWV Daily Chart

Many charts across this market have already reached their targets and completed massive moves, and what incredible moves they have been. Because of that, I will likely be doing a fair amount of profit-taking this week and tightening trailing stops on existing positions. I also plan to be much more selective when it comes to initiating new trades.

There are still some names that have my attention. CRWV remains high on the list. FLY is potentially setting up yet again. RGTI looks like it may be preparing for another move higher. KTOS and RCAT both look interesting at current levels, and SMR is starting to catch my attention as well despite being a total dumpster fire of a chart.

I will cover all of those charts and more in this week’s swing trading videos.

This market simply will not slow down and is once again pushing into new all-time highs. The largest pullback we have seen so far lasted just three days and dropped only 2.4%. The price action is tracking very closely with the vertical rallies we saw in both 2024 and 2025, and if those analogs continue to play out, this market should keep grinding higher before any meaningful correction shows up.

The next major target on QQQ sits in the $765-$770 area, roughly another 4% higher from here. In a market moving like this, that kind of move could happen in four trading days, though it will more likely take a couple of weeks. On SPY, the next major level does not come in until around $810. That one will take longer, and you would expect at least some kind of pullback before a move like that fully plays out. At this point though, almost anything seems possible.

Thursday was a strong day for the indexes and several individual names, but there is still massive bifurcation happening under the surface, including within the Trillion Dollar Titans. Speaking of the Trillion Dollar Titans, MU is now one of the cool kids with a valuation just over one trillion dollars. It carries roughly a 4% weighting in QQQ and has become the ETF’s fifth-largest holding.

The path to higher prices is still very much intact. NVDA and GOOGL need to hold their key support levels, AAPL needs to keep grinding higher or consolidate, AMZN needs to break out in its most bullish 2020 patern, and MSFT and META both need to break out and continue higher. Throw in AVGO earnings potentially pouring gasoline on the AI trade again, and enthusiasm could accelerate quickly.

Across the mega caps, the risk-to-reward still looks solid on a number of the names. As long as $730 on SPY continues to hold, there is no reason the next several weeks cannot stay bullish.

SPY Daily Chart

MSFT

The last MSFT write-up was back on May 7th, “Patience” and that bullish thesis is still completely intact. The stock never violated the main support level and has now given us more than 20 days to accumulate. We have seen a very tight consolidation right around the 100-day SMA and near the point of control when anchoring volume all the way back to the 2021 highs.

Thursday’s candle finally gave us a strong push higher on volume with a strong close. That is the first time we have seen that kind of action since earnings, and it looks like the beginning of a move toward $443 and eventually into the $480 area where the major gap fill sits.

The protective put trigger is now moving up to any close below Thursday’s candle and below the 100-day SMA. If that happens, I buy puts and wait. Otherwise, I will stay patient, because MSFT is still doing exactly what I wanted it to.

If the stock runs into resistance at the anchored VWAP from the all-time highs, currently around $432, we could see this choppy consolidation continue for a bit longer. That would likely be an opportunity to keep adding, as long as the stock does not lose the 100-day SMA and Thursday’s low.

MSFT Daily Chart

GOOGL

GOOGL is a very interesting chart right now. After that clean inverted hammer and all-time high trap setup, I got short for a few days before closing this week for a small gain. The stock simply refused to break below key support, which told me everything I needed to know.

At this point the price action looks much more like a bull flag than a topping pattern, and given the overall strength of this market, GOOGL likely still has a path toward the $420 area and possibly higher

What makes this chart especially clean is how well-defined the levels are. A break below $382 likely sends the stock down into the earnings gap fill. But if it continues holding above that level, the odds favor continuation higher into the larger Fibonacci targets.

With GOOGL sitting roughly $8.00 above key support right now, it creates a solid setup for bullish swing trades while also giving a clear line in the sand to flip bearish if support eventually gives way.

From a longer-term perspective, any move back down into the $355 gap fill area, near prior highs and long-term moving averages, should set up a very compelling buying opportunity if it develops.

GOOGL Daily Chart

The SPY and QQQ continue to defy gravity and blast higher, propelled by the AI trade. This is one of the most bifurcated markets I have ever seen, with few stocks participating in the massive moves. The ones that are, really are.

MU, one of the main leaders of this jaw-dropping run higher, has added roughly $500 billion to its market cap in just over a month and simply will not quit. This has pushed semiconductors into one of the most stretched moves we have ever seen.

SOXX has been showing bearish divergence for 33 days and is right inside the time zone where we generally see tops form after explosive RSI highs. June 11th is the last date where it has historically topped within this type of setup, but it has already blown away the percentage moves of the historical data, so it is quite possible that the timeframe stretches further this time around.

AVGO reports earnings in one week. That report could ignite the semiconductor trade and send the sector even higher, or break it down, depending on what way it goes.

QQQ Daily Chart

The SpaceX IPO

Everyone is watching the SpaceX IPO coming in early to mid June, and people have been calling for that to mark the top of the market ever since the rumors surfaced. If we keep stretching and pushing into that date, it actually could happen.

Generally, when everyone is watching for one thing, it does not play out that cleanly. That said, I do think the space-related names likely top around then, if they even make it that long without beginning a correction. I reviewed my favorite space names in detail in yesterdays video.

Euphoric “must own” stories often show up late in bull markets. We saw it during the Dot-com bubble. We saw it when Coinbase IPO’d almost exactly at the peak of the 2021 crypto bull market. We saw it when Rivian IPO’d near the peak of EV speculation.

The SpaceX IPO could represent peak retail exuberance and a massive liquidity concentration into one story, all while yields are rising, liquidity is tightening, and much of the broader market is not participating. A final blow-off move into a major liquidity event like a multi-trillion dollar IPO could potentially be where the music stops.

This is all still quite speculative. But with a market this extended, it is worth paying attention to.

The Bigger Picture

With the SPY as extended as it is, a decent pullback or sideways consolidation through the summer months would be healthy. However, we have seen throughout 2024 and 2025 that this market does not require meaningful corrections to sustain upward momentum, which is why I remain hesitant to assume a larger dip is guaranteed.

My plan stays the same. Until key supports break on SPY and QQQ, I remain bullish and will continue looking for slight dips to buy into stronger names.

Key Stocks

AMZN recently gave us a perfect example of buying a dip in a strong momentum stock. It pulled back for 14 trading days and bounced directly off key support. When a stock moves vertically for as long as AMZN did, rallying roughly 40% in just 26 trading days, you expect some kind of pullback into the short-term EMAs. That is another thing that makes the push in QQQ so remarkable. Anyway, AMZN dropped back into the 20-EMA and immediately bounced after closing below it for only one day. I discussed the setup in Tuesday’s Swing Trade Video and got long in the RLT Swing Trade Community.

AMZN Daily Chart w/2020 Analog

COHR is a similar setup. It dropped back into the 20-EMA after making a 40% run in just 12 trading days, and is now consolidating above the 10-EMA. If it breaks above $390, that creates another potential trade opportunity for a 10-EMA bullish trade into new all-time highs.

The key to trading this market has been finding momentum and trading with it. Finding names that are cleanly pulling back into the 10 and 20-EMA, then watching for signals like high-wave candles, hammer candles, or morning star reversals.

NVDA has fallen 11% since peaking. While it likely sees a short-term bounce soon, it has the structure of a stock that may be looking for a larger correction. After four consecutive down days sitting on support dating back to November 2025, a bounce is expected, even if it ultimately forms a lower high. A bullish gap-and-go on Thursday would likely be tradable, similar to the May 6th gap we discussed in real time.

AAPL has held the 10-EMA since earnings and is on an absolute tear. It has now hit all of my targets and looks like it wants to tag $316 before any meaningful correction. Once it does begin correcting, the $290 area is a solid level to watch for support.

TSLA has continued pushing higher, and the trade I outlined in my May 18th newsletter has worked out extremely well. It hit target one today when it filled the overhead gap. The next major target now sits around $474, the next overhead gap. Ideally, I would love to see it push into that area ahead of the potential SpaceX IPO.

META was finally a big mover within the Trillion Dollar Titans today. It had a very strong session and broke out of an 18-candle consolidation, closing above the high-volume earnings candle for the first time. It barely pushed above the 100-week SMA and stopped right at the 100-day SMA. Today’s candle is now the key area it needs to hold, while the overhead gap remains the main upside target. A small retest would be ideal, but if META starts gapping higher and gaining momentum, it could move straight toward that gap. META has a tendency to move aggressively once it finally decides to trend.

META Daily Chart

Bitcoin

Bitcoin recently rejected at the 200-day SMA after a choppy, overlapping, messy push higher that greatly resembles a bear flag. It has now given us a five-wave structure off the high that appears to be the beginning of a larger C wave that could take it down to a new low.

That would align well with prior cycles in terms of both timing and drawdown depth, and since nearly everything else in this cycle has tracked historical patterns closely, there is little reason to assume the pattern suddenly breaks now.

Worth noting: MicroStrategy is now buying Treasuries instead of Bitcoin, which suggests that even Michael Saylor believes better buying opportunities may come later.

If the low is already in, which I do not currently assume, things likely remain choppy and overlapping for a while longer. The type of sustained bullish momentum that typically defines Bitcoin bull markets is probably at least a few months away.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

The strength of this market is very clear, and Wednesday and Thursday once again reinforced that. The key support level I have been watching, the May 12th low at $731 on SPY, never broke. Because of that, there really has not been much reason to get overly bearish outside of short-term day trades. As long as that level continues holding, this market absolutely has the ability to keep pushing higher.

The 2024 Analog & Key Levels

This recent 2.3% dip was almost identical in size to the January 2024 pullback before the market resumed its vertical rally higher. During that run, SPY went on to gain another 12%, bringing the total move to roughly 28%. A similar move from here would project SPY up toward $800 and into the upper trend line that this entire bull market since 2009 has respected.

I am not saying that has to happen here, but if the only resistance we find at this major Fibonacci extension level is a three-day dip before a breakout higher, and especially if that breakout comes with strong volume, then that bullish scenario has to become the default expectation. Until $731 breaks, I am assuming it is still full steam ahead.

SPY Daily Chart

Trillion Dollar Titans

If this market is going to continue vertically higher, a few things need to happen. First, we need continued participation from the Trillion Dollar Titans. NVDA should find support here and continue pushing higher toward the $240 to $260 range. GOOGL also needs to hold support and push into new highs targeting roughly $426 and possibly even $474.

What is cool about both NVDA and GOOGL is that they have very clean bullish invalidation levels directly below current price. GOOGL needs to hold $381 or it becomes increasingly likely that it fills the gap near $355, which looks like a pretty enticing short opportunity, especially after the all-time high trap and inverted hammer that formed on May 18th. I outlined the short possibility on GOOGL back on May 18th when that inverted trapping hammer first formed. The direction GOOGL breaks from this current two-day consolidation is likely going to be the direction that has edge over the next several days, and possibly even weeks, especially if it gaps out of the two day range.

NVDA should continue holding above $217, otherwise a deeper retest becomes highly probable.

GOOGL Daily Chart

In the full bull scenario, MSFT should break out higher and confirm that this recent consolidation was simply a bull flag. If that happens, the next major target would be around $475 at the gap fill from January 29th.

AMZN also appears to be forming a possible bull flag and could continue vertically higher toward the $300 area, following the 2020 analog I have laid out. Like GOOGL and NVDA, AMZN has a very clear bullish invalidation level below Tuesday’s candle around $255. If that level breaks, it likely means the stock is no longer in a vertical trend and needs to retest closer to $240 before finding support again.

TSLA could easily fill its overhead gap near $473, which is roughly 16% higher than the top of the buy zone I outlined in Monday’s newsletter. As long as TSLA continues holding above Tuesday’s candle, the bull thesis remains intact there as well.

META still has a lot of work to do for anything bullish to happen, but if it can reclaim the 100-week SMA, the overhead gap around $664 becomes a realistic target. Out of the mega caps, META is the one where I currently see the least amount of edge.

AMZN Daily Chart

Semis and the Big Picture

Beyond the mega caps, we would also want to see participation from names like TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and the other major semiconductor leaders. Personally, I just do not currently see great risk reward in AVGO to the upside, especially with earnings right around the corner, so I am staying away from that one for now.

If the Trillion Dollar Titans continue participating, there is absolutely a path for this market to continue moving immediately higher. However, if we start breaking below these key levels on the individual names and then eventually on SPY and QQQ themselves, then a larger, and honestly healthier, retest is likely underway. If that happens, I will outline the major downside risk levels and buy levels I am watching.

For now, as long as the $731 level on SPY and the $695 level on QQQ continue to hold, I am staying focused on strong names in strong trends and looking to enter those names when they present solid risk/reward setups with clear levels to trade against.

Hot stocks like ARM, which I featured in Monday’s Swing Trading Video, are a great example of this strategy. Beyond that, I am also watching INOD, FIVN, INTC, QCOM, WULF, LITE, GEV, COHR, QBTS, RGTI, and JOBY. All of those charts still look constructive and capable of further upside from here. I will go through all of these charts and more in my Friday Financial Forecast video for all RLT members.

Wednesday gapped up after we had three down days in a row. QQQ and tech once again led the market higher after the 10-EMA and key support held at $731 on SPY. That is now the main level to watch on the broad market. If we chop around this level and then break down below $731, it becomes a high probability trade down to $725. However, if we instead consolidate here and then break out higher with volume, it is going to start looking a lot more like the 2023 and 2025 playbook where the market barely rested before another vertical move higher. That type of move would likely push SPY into the upper trend line and 2.18 extension before any major drawdown occurred. That would certainly be a max pain event for both the bears and everyone still sitting on the sidelines.

While I don’t necessarily expect that outcome based on everything I am currently seeing, I have to follow price. We have seen this exact type of move two of the last three years, so there is no reason it can’t happen again. The key price to watch on the broad market is the low of Tuesday’s candle. If that breaks, we should move quickly down toward the May 6th gap fill. If that gap fill fails to hold as support, then we are likely looking at a larger correction with key downside levels at $712 and then $700 on SPY.

If we start seeing quick closes back below Wednesday’s candle across most names, that would be the first real red flag. The pivots that formed this week are fairly solid and should not immediately break down if the market is truly bullish again here.

What was really interesting about Wednesday’s bounce is that participation was broad. Even many of the lagging sectors joined in. Financials held support and bounced nicely, consumer discretionary showed strength, and even regional banks had a strong bullish session. Semiconductors were up and IGV also participated, which suggests this is more than just market rotation. However, it could be partially driven by shorts unwinding.

SPY Daily Chart

I focus primarily on the price action of the stocks I want to trade along with the general market. However, when I start seeing bearish macro charts develop that point toward larger economic issues, I do pay attention. Those types of setups often take months to fully develop and play out. If price action is saying something different than the macro picture, I will still follow price first.

That being said, the 10-year and 20-year yields are currently pulling back into support after a very bullish run higher. If yields find support at prior resistance turned support and begin pushing higher again, that would not be a good sign for risk assets. For equities to make another massive run higher similar to the 2023 and 2025 analogs, you would likely want to see yields pull back more meaningfully through the summer. Macro factors and charts do not always sync perfectly with price action, which is why I only use them as secondary indicators.

10-Year Bond Yield

Nvidia

Everyone was sitting on pins and needles waiting for the NVDA report. I am writing this a few hours after earnings dropped and the stock is flat, slightly down. A lot can change overnight, and often does after earnings as the market continues digesting the data, but for now it looks like we are headed toward a relatively muted open for the largest company in the world.

NVDA crushed earnings, which at this point is expected. They beat on revenue, EPS, and guided higher once again. The real driver of the move in this space has always been Capex spend from the big tech companies, which we already saw report. So I think we all knew things were still healthy here. NVDA earnings just put another stamp on it.

As far as the chart and sentiment goes, NVDA was working on a pivot on Tuesday and Wednesday as price bounced directly off the prior all-time high from late April. The 1.618 extension from the October to March drawdown projects a target near $240, which remains the primary upside level if we get a more bullish reaction. If NVDA opens below Tuesday’s low, we likely see some selling back into the low $200 region. As long as NVDA can hold $196 and maintain that major support zone, the upside target remains viable. However, my short-term alert level remains Tuesday’s low as the paths higher into $240 becomes more complex and convoluted with a decent breakdown here.

NVDA Daily Chart

Monday gave us some bearish follow-through to Friday’s gap-and-go. Semis, which have been the clear market leaders throughout this entire rally, led the drop while software actually held up pretty well and put in a bullish day. That is exactly what I have been positioning for, so no complaints there. I got stopped out of my SOXX swing trade but day traded SPY, SOXX, and MU bearish for some nice wins. I kept all of them quick, because the resilience of the bulls in this market is still very real and the power hour into the close Monday afternoon was a good reminder of that.

Monday’s low created a pretty important level to watch on both SPY and QQQ. It lines up fairly closely with last Tuesday’s low. If we start taking out those lows, the May 6th gap fill becomes a high-probability downside target. But as long as we continue to hold last Tuesday’s low, there is still no confirmed lower low on the market. That means as long as $731 holds on SPY, there is still a legitimate chance we push into new all-time highs this week before any larger drop plays out, assuming one actually does.

If selling pressure picks back up and that key level breaks, then $724, $712, and $700 are the major support areas I will be watching on SPY. Those are the levels where I will look to add long exposure, depending on how the Trillion Dollar Titans, DXY, TLT, and oil are behaving at that point.

SPY Daily Chart

Trillion Dollar Titans Update

There are some interesting setups developing in some of the biggest companies in the world right now.

MSFT continues to act well and show real relative strength since I featured it here and went long. The 100-week SMA remains the main target and I really like how it has held above the 100-day SMA so far. If it closes below the 100-day SMA and loses Friday’s candle low, that would be the first major warning sign that it may not be ready to make a bullish move and could instead be setting up for another retest of the 200-week SMA.

MSFT Daily Chart

Tesla: Into a Support Zone

TSLA is sitting at a very interesting level for potential long exposure right now. I sent this chart out to everyone in the RLT Swing Trade Community when TSLA was sitting right on the 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, and the anchored VWAP from the December highs. TSLA has given us three bearish days in a row and roughly a 10% correction.

It still has an unfilled gap overhead at $473, which would be my main midterm target on the trade. TSLA is such a volatile name that you really have to give it room to breathe. A perfect bounce directly off the 100-day, 200-day, and AVWAP would obviously be ideal, but I am not sure it makes things that easy on us. Hopefully it does, especially since I know a lot of people went long Monday afternoon.

As long as TSLA holds the $389 level I will continue to consider the bull thesis alive and let it work through some chop if needed. Below that level, the probability of at least a 100-week SMA retest starts increasing pretty dramatically.

TSLA Daily Chart

CLSK: A Setup Worth Watching

CLSK is another chart that looks pretty interesting right here. It had earnings last Tuesday and has spent the last week consolidating inside that earnings candle while sitting right on top of its major moving averages. The chart also has a massive inverted head-and-shoulders pattern with a double bottom acting as the head, which is about as constructive as a base can look.

It is currently above the 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, even though those averages are still inverted since the stock has not fully transitioned back into an uptrend yet. It is also holding above the 100-week SMA, 200-week SMA, and even the 100-month SMA. That is a pretty good sign. Even though the chart has been moving sideways, it is still holding above every major moving average I track.

Monday’s bearish hammer candle created a solid trigger level to work with. Ideally I want to see CLSK push above that candle high to confirm it wants to play ball to the upside.

That said, this is still a very choppy and trappy name. CLSK has a history of wicking above prior consolidation ranges before reversing hard, just look at the fake-outs it gave in December and late January before those sell-offs. Even so, if risk is managed below the 200-day SMA, I think this one has the potential to develop into a pretty solid trade, especially if the AI trade continues ripping higher.

The longer CLSK keeps moving sideways inside last Tuesday’s earnings candle, the better the setup becomes.

CLSK Daily Chart

On May 7th I wrote a newsletter called “Patience” where I suggested SPY would likely begin some kind of correction in the $730 to $740 range and that patiently waiting for better entries was the smart move. As it turns out, the market made that second point even harder by blasting all the way to $750 without even pretending to slow down.

Then on May 9th in “Copy Paste,” I detailed the historical instances of these extreme vertical momentum runs and what tends to happen after RSI gets this overheated. The short answer was simple: historically, a decent pullback usually follows within the next couple of weeks.

On May 11th in “SPY Hits Huge Fibonacci Level,” I outlined how SPY was pushing directly into a massive Fibonacci extension level that has historically marked meaningful turning points nearly every single time. If you have not read that one yet it is honestly still worth going back to, because it dives into just how powerful these Golden Ratio Fibonacci extensions can actually be. Both SPY and QQQ have once again stalled almost perfectly at their major Fib extension zones that I outlined in this piece.

Then on May 13th in “Unprecedented Extension,” I looked at the absolutely historic momentum run QQQ has been on and how it officially set the record for the longest streak in history without touching the 10-EMA. I also pointed out something important: once QQQ gets this extended from the 10-EMA, price historically does not simply bounce cleanly on the first touch. More often than not it slices right through the 10-EMA as price mean reverts back toward the 20 or even the 50-day moving average, often surprisingly quickly.

And finally on May 14th in “Everyone Is Expecting a Pullback,” I reviewed every instance since 2010 where SPY’s daily RSI reached 77. Historically that has almost always preceded a decent pullback shortly afterward.

Five newsletters in a row warning that this market is likely nearing at least some kind of top or meaningful pause and urging caution for overly aggressive bulls.

Where Things Stand Right Now

To be fair, the pullback technically has not happened yet. We currently have one bearish candle and it did not even close below the prior two days of price action. Could Monday simply ramp right back higher? Absolutely. Anything is possible in a market this irrationally strong.

But with how extended price currently is, it honestly would not take much of a news catalyst to trigger a sharper drop. Everyone seems to be sitting on edge waiting for some kind of excuse to lock in gains.

Friday also gave us the first real warning signs that equities may finally be getting a little nervous about the bond market. The 20-year Treasury yield pushed above 5% on Friday while the 2-year yield is now potentially forming an inverted head-and-shoulders breakout above 4%.

Ironically, what many traders were hoping would turn into rate cuts under someone like Kevin Warsh may instead end up being a rate hike environment if inflation starts heating back up again. If oil breaks higher and inflation reaccelerates while liquidity tightens, that is not exactly the backdrop you would normally associate with a stock market that just keeps ripping higher.

That is really where the bulls and bears are splitting right now.

The bull thesis, which has been the correct thesis ever since the 2022 lows, says AI is such a transformational force that stocks can continue higher even against a shaky macro backdrop because of the systemic productivity changes it will create.

The bear thesis, which has been wrong for years, argues that the macro environment eventually catches up with the market. Inflation, weakening labor conditions, unsustainable AI funding models, and tightening liquidity eventually pop the bubble and trigger the next major bear market.

If you have followed me for a while, you probably know I sit somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. Price action is ultimately my guide.

SPY Daily Chart

The Levels That Actually Matter

While I absolutely think it would matter if DXY breaks out to new highs while TLT breaks down to new lows, I do not directly trade currencies or bonds. So if equities decide to remain irrational a little longer and keep delaying a correction, I will simply continue monitoring key levels on SPY, QQQ, and the Trillion Dollar Titans.

From a bigger picture perspective, as long as the next dip ultimately holds the 100-day SMA, I still think the broader trend remains bullish into the summer. If we start decisively breaking below that level, things start becoming much more dicey.

That probably sounds a little crazy considering the 100-day SMA currently sits nearly 7% below Friday’s close on SPY. But then again, everyone thought SPY hitting $740 in May sounded insane back when we were sitting at $640 in April. Markets move incredibly fast in both directions, which is exactly why I always try to map out key levels well in advance rather than emotionally reacting in real time.

For more immediate support, I think the gap fill near $725 on SPY will fill once a real pullback begins. Whether or not that support level actually holds will tell us a lot about how serious this correction may ultimately become.

If we simultaneously get bearish confirmations from the bond market, oil, and the dollar, I will become much more cautious buying dips.

The Dollar, Oil & Bonds

The DXY has massive resistance sitting right around $100. If it breaks above that level it is going to matter a lot, not just for Bitcoin but for risk assets broadly.

As I have talked about many times before, DXY and Bitcoin have a pretty reliable inverse correlation. When DXY bottoms, BTC tends to top, and when BTC tops, DXY tends to bottom. Right now DXY looks a lot more like it is trying to put in a bottom than a top, which is one of several reasons I still think BTC could make a new lower low before this bear market is fully resolved. If DXY stays below $100 and eventually breaks down again from here, I can get firmly on board with the idea that BTC has already put in a longer term low and that our current push higher is not just an extended bear flag. But if the dollar starts breaking out above $100, it becomes very hard to imagine BTC holding up well under those conditions.

DXY 3 Day Chart

TLT has already started flashing warning signs after breaking below its key $85 support level. That warning signal is now active. If TLT starts making fresh lows below $83 and especially below the 2023 lows near $82, things could get pretty wild. It becomes very difficult to imagine an endlessly euphoric bull market continuing under those conditions.

TLT Daily Chart

With oil, the first major level to watch is a breakout above the trendline that has trapped crude inside this large triangle pattern since March. The real danger zone comes if oil breaks above $120 and starts making new highs. That would likely create genuine fear across financial markets, especially since most participants currently expect crude to trend lower over time.

Crude Oil 3 Day Chart

My Current Positioning

Taking all of this together, I still think we are getting very close to a meaningful pullback and I am positioning accordingly with a fairly large cash position.

I will continue looking to buy dips in the strongest names as opportunities present themselves and will keep updating here as that happens. But I will also be watching TLT, oil, and DXY very closely. If all three start breaking the key levels discussed above, I will become much less aggressive buying dips and instead wait for either lower prices or stronger confirmation that equities are actually stabilizing and ready to move higher again.

Seven consecutive green weekly candles. Barring a massive selloff on Friday, that is exactly what we are looking at. SPY pushed all the way up to $750 on Thursday, which is honestly difficult to wrap your head around considering we were sitting near $650 just six weeks ago.

I will be straight with you. I am conflicted on this market right now.

On one hand, I keep seeing signals that a pullback should be right around the corner. I have been pointing these out over the last couple of weeks. The 10-EMA extension is one of the more recent examples, and the RSI readings on QQQ are flashing levels that have historically marked overheated conditions.

When we look at the SPY since 2010, RSI has only hit 77 ten times, including right now. Every single one of those prior occurrences eventually led to a meaningful pullback within the following month. Those pullbacks ranged from roughly 4% on the mild end all the way to the 25% collapse we saw in 2022.

Here is the part that actually matters though. Eight out of the prior nine RSI spikes ultimately led to buyable dips that went on to push to new highs. Even the 2022 setup saw about a 4% dip after the RSI extreme before SPY recovered and printed a fresh all-time high before the larger bear market finally kicked in.

That means nine out of nine times, the first pullback after these extreme RSI readings was buyable for at least one more push to new highs before any larger correction took hold. Nine for nine.

SPY Daily Chart with RSI

And yet despite all of that, despite every overbought signal and every stretched indicator, the market keeps powering through resistance levels, breaking records, and pushing further and further away from its short-term moving averages. Many of the strongest stocks driving this rally also look like they could use a breather, but so far none of them have taken one.

Shorting into this kind of strength is a great way to lose money if risk is not tightly controlled. More often than not you are better off trading with the trend rather than fighting it. But buying up here, which apparently plenty of people are still happily doing, honestly feels a little insane to me too.

Here Is My Current Game Plan

I think the market eventually sees a meaningful pullback that brings SPY back into the $720 area and potentially even lower toward $700 and the prior all-time highs if we get really lucky. But I also think it is entirely possible SPY pushes toward $760 or slightly higher before any real correction shows up.

Especially if the market simply chops sideways for a few days, cools off a little, and then NVDA delivers another bullish earnings gap next week that drags semiconductors up for one final melt-up move. Of course NVDA also has a long history of gap and crap earnings reactions, so earnings could just as easily mark some kind of short-term top before a larger pullback begins.

If SPY does push into the $760 area ahead of NVDA earnings, I will likely start putting on some short exposure. At that point the risk/reward starts becoming a lot more attractive and I can keep losses tight if I turn out to be wrong. That is really what this whole game comes down to.

NVDA Daily Chart

History says that when these extended momentum rallies finally cool off, price tends to slice right through the 10-EMA and pull back toward the 20 or even the 50-EMA before finding any real support. The problem is that nobody has ever seen a momentum event quite like this one, so it is genuinely hard to say how things resolve this time around. Because of that I will be managing risk carefully on both sides of this market.

And honestly, here is the thing that keeps nagging at me. If the market pulls back from here, not a single person would be surprised by it. That is actually my biggest dilemma right now. Markets almost never do the obvious thing at the obvious time. This may be one of the biggest reasons this “up only” market has lasted as long as it has. And it may also be the reason it continues a little longer before we finally get any kind of meaningful dip.

I hope everyone survived Tuesday’s bear market. All three and a half hours of it. Things got a little dicey there for a minute, but I think most of us made it out the other side intact.

In all seriousness, Tuesday’s gap down was one of the cleaner short setups I have seen in a while from a day-trading perspective. It was a textbook gap-and-go lower that opened beneath the prior day’s bullish candle following one of the steepest and most aggressive rallies in market history. I shorted MU and SOXX as day trades and kept the RLT Swing Trade chat updated with my thoughts throughout the session.

Around 1:00 PM, SPY put in a clean double bottom and has been grinding higher ever since. When that double bottom confirmed, I posted that Tuesday’s move lower was likely a bear trap and that the market would probably push back into new all-time highs first before any larger correction plays out. The idea was simple: trap the bears then the bulls. So far, that is exactly what is happening.

It was just too easy and too clean for Tuesday’s gap down to mark the high. There are too many buyers out there desperate to get a piece of this bull market for stocks to roll over several percent in a neat and orderly fashion. No key levels were broken either, so there was no real technical reason to get aggressively bearish on a larger timeframe based on that gap down alone.

SPY Daily Chart

26 Days and Counting

It has now been 26 consecutive trading days since QQQ last touched its 10-EMA.

In more than 25 years of QQQ trading history, through the dot-com bubble, the 2008 recovery, the 2020 COVID V-shape, and the 2023 AI melt-up, this is the first time it has ever gone 26 straight trading days without touching the 10-EMA. This is not just an overbought rally anymore. This is a literally unprecedented momentum event in the entire history of the Nasdaq 100 ETF.

What is also worth paying attention to is how these extended streaks have historically resolved. When QQQ has gone 20 or more trading days without touching the 10-EMA in the past, the eventual retest rarely produced a clean bounce off it. More often than not, price sliced right through the 10-EMA rather than holding it. Once price gets this stretched above its moving averages, the 10-EMA usually cannot absorb the selling on the first retest. Here is what the comparable episodes looked like:

• March 2019: QQQ went 21 days without touching the 10-EMA, then dropped 11% once it finally tagged it.

• March 2017: QQQ went 22 days without touching the 10-EMA. Instead of a sharp selloff, price chopped sideways for 31 days beneath both the 10 and 20-EMA in a slow, grinding time-based correction.

• November 2015: QQQ went 21 days without touching the 10-EMA. When it finally did, price sliced straight through it and fell all the way into the 50-EMA before bottoming out, correcting roughly 17% in total.

• November 2014: QQQ went 22 days without touching the 10-EMA. The retest resulted in about a 6% drop into prior all-time highs and the 100-day SMA before the market found its footing again.

• May 2013: QQQ went 21 days without touching the 20-EMA, failed to hold it, and corrected roughly 8% into the 100-day SMA before eventually recovering.

• November 2010: QQQ went 21 days without touching the 10-EMA, sliced through it on the retest, nearly tagged the 50-EMA, and corrected about 6% before resuming higher.

The common thread across all of these examples is that in extremely extended moves far away from the 10-EMA, it becomes less likely that price holds on the first retest.

QQQ Daily Chart

Where Things Stand Right Now

I am expecting QQQ to find resistance somewhere around its 200% Fibonacci extension, which is essentially where it closed on Wednesday. SPY, meanwhile, is pushing directly into the large Fibonacci confluence zone I covered in the previous newsletter.

That said, given how relentlessly strong this market has been, I still think we probably see a bit more upside before this move runs out of gas. Fibonacci levels are areas of interest, not magical brick walls that stop price to the penny. Nothing in technical analysis works like that. A push toward $750 on SPY still feels like a reasonable possibility before we see any kind of meaningful correction.

For now I am watching closely and staying patient. I would rather wait for a key support level to break or for a gap-down that actually follows through to the downside before getting on the short side.

Check out the video below where I review every major instance in history where QQQ became extremely extended from its 10-EMA and what happened after those momentum runs finally cooled off.

Monday gave us yet another bullish day in the market as this relentless rally continues higher. SPY is now pushing into a major Fibonacci extension zone, and what makes this area especially important is that there are actually three major overlapping Fib levels all lining up between roughly $740-$744.

Those levels are:
• The 300% extension from the 2022 drop
• The 200% extension from the 2025 drop
• The 161.8% extension from the 2026 drop, also known as the Golden Ratio

You can see from the chart below just how important these levels tend to be historically and how they often mark meaningful turning points or pauses in the market, especially when several major extensions stack on top of one another like this. In fact, the Fibonacci extensions from the 2022 bear market have essentially called every major pullback we’ve seen since price first tagged the 1.618 extension back in July of 2024.

SPY 3 Day Chart

Meanwhile, the QQQ is now setting records for the longest streak in its history without touching the 10-EMA, making this one of the most extended rallies we have ever seen by several different metrics. Because of that, I am expecting at least some kind of pause or short-term correction in this area.

Several of the Trillion Dollar Titans are also starting to look like they may want to rest a bit and work off some of these gains before continuing higher. The same goes for many of the semiconductor names that have largely fueled this melt-up rally over the last several weeks.

MU in particular looks like it may be nearing a short-term top after an absolutely ridiculous 162% run higher. The stock gapped up again on Monday and printed a tiny indecision candle — a sign of a market slowing down and catching its breath. A close below Monday’s candle would likely be the first warning shot. A close below Friday’s candle, and we’re probably looking at a deeper retracement, potentially back toward the $500 area.

Of course, if MU decides to continue doing what it has done throughout this entire rally and simply ignore gravity altogether, the next major resistance could come near the 3.618 Fibonacci extension, which lines up closely with a $1 trillion market cap around $877.

MU has only registered an 85 on the daily RSI four times in its entire history — 1995, 2020, 2025, and now 2026. In all three prior instances, the stock initially paused or pulled back modestly before ultimately resolving higher. There’s no fundamental reason to believe this time should be any different.

MU Daily Chart

So many of the trades I have been discussing lately continue to hit targets almost immediately. The “hot stonks,” as I like to call them, all exploded higher again Monday with names like AAOI, CRDO, RKLB, COHR, and LITE all making massive moves.

This market still has not really shown much rotation behavior yet. Instead, the strong just continue getting stronger while every short-term pullback into moving averages keeps producing solid buying opportunities almost immediately.

One area that I still think may have some upside room left is the quantum computing sector. IONQ, which remains my favorite stock in the space, had an absolute monster day Monday after printing a 10-out-of-10 hammer candle Friday. It also gave a similar hammer setup off the 20-EMA back on April 28th, so the signals were definitely there that buyers were stepping back into the once loved name.

QUBT is gapping up big on earnings Monday afternoon and could easily continue pushing toward $13.50 if buyers continue stepping in Tuesday morning. RGTI has also built a pretty solid-looking base here and honestly looks like it could become a $24 stock surprisingly quickly if momentum really kicks back into gear.

RGTI Daily Chart

As far as high-beta momentum swing trades go, this remains one of the more interesting areas of the market to me right now. I think Tuesday could end up being a very bullish day for the sector, and aggressive swings or day trades may offer the best risk/reward setups if these names really start moving again.

At this point I think I should just start copy-pasting the intro section of this newsletter because the same thing keeps happening every single day. The QQQ was up another massive 2.34% on Friday as it continues to pull away from SPY just like in 1999. Speaking of copy-paste, the bulls are partying like it’s 1999 and history is repeating itself in real time.

SPY Daily Chart

The only time in the history of QQQ that we have seen a move this extended and this vertical into new all-time highs was during the 1999 melt-up after the ETF was formed. Sure, we’ve seen other monster rallies before, but those all came after massive crashes like 2000, 2008, or the 2025 bear market. This is different. This is a straight-up face-ripping momentum move directly into new highs with zero pullbacks. Welcome to the AI tech boom... or bubble... depending on your view of things.

The QQQ chart is honestly so vertical and parabolic at this point that I think it’s going to start going backwards soon just out of pure geometry. QQQ has not even touched the 10-EMA once during this entire run, which is shows just how vertical it has been. Even during the dot-com melt-up we didn’t go this long without tagging the 10-EMA.

QQQ Daily Chart

And if you still think we are not reliving 1999 all over again, then how exactly do you explain the President of the United States telling everyone to buy DELL stock? Dude, the president is pumping DELL. Also, how do you explain INTC suddenly becoming one of the top 5 hottest stocks in the entire market?

Also how do you explain that AOL is now the hottest search engine and the coolest way to chat with your friends late into the night?

Okay maybe not that last one, but honestly the first two sound just as ridiculous if you didn’t already know they were real.

While the market remains in full beast mode, this is about as bifurcated of a market as you can possibly get. A handful of AI names and the Trillion Dollar Titans are dragging the entire market higher while huge chunks of the market are quietly lagging behind. Financials (XLF) broke down on Friday. The equal-weight S&P (RSP) is struggling at prior all-time highs instead of blasting through them like semiconductors (SMH) and QQQ. The DIA has not even made a new all-time high yet.

Software remains especially hated as IGV is still roughly 23% below its highs, although it’s starting to look a little double-bottom-y here, but more on that in a minute. Meanwhile materials (XLB), consumer discretionary (XLY), industrials (XLI), staples (XLP), utilities (XLU), and healthcare (XLV) are all showing varying levels of weakness and failing to confirm the broader move higher.

But honestly, as long as the Trillion Dollar Titans and the AI tech names continue holding this market up, I think all of that remains mostly noise for now. If we start losing leadership from the mega caps like we did late last year, then suddenly all of these divergences start to matter a whole lot more.

I also don’t really see the market rotating into consumer staples or defensive sectors right now. If anything, the one place I could realistically see rotation flowing into is software. Traders selling semiconductors are probably not rotating that money into JNJ. They’re more likely rotating it into names like PLTR or MSFT.

MSFT Daily Chart

I really do like the IGV chart right now. It has about as clean of a double bottom as you can ask for and just regained the 100-day SMA after a slight retest of the neckline. There’s also an open gap sitting up near $97 that would make for a very solid upside target.

If IGV loses the 100-day SMA again, I don’t think the bull thesis is necessarily dead, but that would definitely be a reasonable level to manage risk around. Otherwise, as long as IGV holds roughly $83 and the 200-week SMA, I think the broader bullish thesis remains intact.

IGV Daily Chart

As I have mentioned before, I like the MSFT chart along with cybersecurity names like PANW and CRWD, all of which are large components of IGV and could help pull it higher over the coming weeks.

Check out the video below where I review the 1999 correlation with today’s market and discuss why RSI is suggesting we should be nearing a short-term pullback. The probabilities and historical comparisons suggest that any near-term weakness would likely be a buying opportunity rather than the start of a bigger top.

Thursday’s price action didn’t really change much on the broad market. Technically, SPY closed slightly lower, but it still made a new all-time high and still closed above Wednesday’s low. Until that level breaks, there really isn’t much to update from a structural standpoint. As long as Wednesday’s low continues to hold, I think it’s very possible we push directly toward the $740 area on SPY. That would line up with the 1.618 extension from the February and March selloff and could become an area where the market finally starts to slow down.

Pretty much every analog I’m tracking right now, including 1990, 1999, and 2025, suggests some kind of slowdown or correction in the $730 to $740 range. How that correction behaves will likely tell us a lot about what comes next.

At this point, I think it’s unlikely we get a clean drop all the way back to prior all-time highs right away, simply because too many people are expecting that exact move. The higher probability outcome, at least for now, is probably a shallower 3 to 4 percent correction that pulls SPY back toward roughly $710, maybe slightly lower, before another leg higher. In 2025, we saw a correction of about 3.3% from the highs before the trend resumed. If we assume something similar is beginning now, which is a big assumption given we still don’t have any real breakdown signals yet, that projects down toward roughly $712 before continuation higher.

The alternative scenario is a deeper retracement that undercuts prior all-time highs and pulls back into the longer term moving averages. That kind of move would likely spike fear and convince a lot of people this entire breakout was a fakeout before the uptrend eventually resumes. The problem is that it’s still too early to know which path we’re on. We need more price action, and more importantly, we need to see how the key leadership names behave.

If we start losing the longer term moving averages across the major indices, then the thesis changes and I’ll trade accordingly. But with SPY and QQQ not even touching their 10-EMAs yet, I still think the highest probability outcome remains a shallow retest followed by continued upside.

SPY Daily Chart

The next sustained move higher likely comes through market rotation. Most earnings are now out of the way, and many of the names driving this rally are extremely extended. The one mega cap that still has earnings and the power to significantly move the market is NVDA, and earnings are still about two weeks away. If NVDA is ripping into the $230 to $240 area before earnings, then I’ll be expecting weakness on its report. We all know how NVDA loves to gap and crap. For now, all I can really do is trail stops higher and see whether NVDA can continue pushing toward new all-time highs before earnings where I will take profits or lock in gains with a collar.

There are really only two solid approaches in this market right now, and both require patience. The first is looking for names that haven’t participated in the massive momentum rally yet but could benefit from rotation as money starts flowing out of semis and AI hardware. These are likely slower moving, beaten down names like software stocks. The challenge is that they usually take longer to work. They have heavy resistance overhead, which makes them move slower, and they require patience because you’re buying into weakness rather than strength.

The second approach is waiting for the momentum leaders to cool off, consolidate, retest key EMAs, and set up again for the next leg higher.

Personally, I’ll be doing both. The thread connecting these two approaches is the same: rotation. If money starts leaving the most extended names, it has to go somewhere, and right now the more AI resistant software names look like a possible destination.

Micron Technology, Inc

As far as momentum names go, MU remains at the top of my watchlist. If MU breaks below $603, I’ll start looking for a retest into the 20-EMA, which it hasn’t touched since reclaiming it after the April 8th gap. Ideally, I’d like to see it consolidate around that level similarly to how it behaved around prior 10-EMA tests, chopping sideways for a few days before continuing higher.

As long as MU holds above roughly $500, I think the momentum trend can continue. Below that, the stock may need a larger reset and consolidation before the next move higher begins. Even a move down to $500 would still represent roughly a 25% correction from current levels, which shows just how extended this name has become. But it’s also at the center of one of the hottest themes in the market, and institutions clearly still want exposure. A dip into the 20-EMA and a fill of the gap around $550 would still look tradable to me.

MU Daily Chart

Microsoft Corp.

The rotation name I’m watching most closely right now is MSFT. If you’ve been reading this newsletter for a while, you know I traded MSFT heavily through February, March, and April. That ended up being a strong trade, but it required patience because it involved buying into a downtrend. That’s still the case here.

MSFT recently ran into resistance at the 100-day SMA and rejected. Now it looks like it may be forming a bull flag after the sharp move off the lows into earnings. Naturally, earnings initially gapped down because it’s a software stock, but importantly, price has held the low of the earnings candle and actually closed above the bulk of that earnings volume for the first time on Thursday. As long as bulls can keep MSFT above the earnings candle low, I think there’s room for a move into the 100-week SMA and potentially even the gap fill around $480 if momentum builds.

There’s still plenty of resistance overhead. The first major hurdle is reclaiming the 100-day SMA. A close above that level and above Thursday’s candle would be a solid first step. Above there, the next resistance area comes in around the anchored VWAP from the October highs near $434, followed by the 100-week SMA. If we assume the earnings candle marked the low of a B wave, then the C wave likely targets at least $450, with probabilities favoring a full gap fill for a more symmetrical move. If instead this is the beginning of a larger impulsive move off the lows, then we may only get a move toward the 100-week SMA before another pause. Either way, the pattern still looks incomplete and suggests higher prices are likely ahead.

Stop levels to know: if MSFT loses the earnings candle low, I’ll look to re-enter around the 200-day SMA as a deeper B wave setup. If it loses the 200-day SMA decisively, it goes on the do not trade list until it reclaims that level. Clear trigger, clear rule.

MSFT Daily Chart

This kind of vertical price action creates FOMO and emotional decision making for everyone. I’m up roughly 25% on the year, and when I look at some of these AI names, it’s easy to feel like that number should be much higher. There’s always that voice asking why you weren’t fully loaded into MU (up 130%) or SNDK (up 480%).

Whenever I start feeling that, I try to channel it into something productive. The first thing I do is analyze how I could have improved execution. In this case, trailing stops instead of taking profits too quickly would have kept me involved in several positions longer. That’s something I’m actively working on. The second thing is making sure that feeling doesn’t start driving decisions. Chasing because you feel behind is one of the fastest ways to turn a good year into a bad one.

The key right now is selectivity. Stay patient, monitor key levels, and be ready when the next planned setup appears.

Wednesday gave us another absolute blowout session, with QQQ closing up 2.08%. It’s now up roughly 25% from the March 30th lows, has pushed through the 1.618 extension from the recent drop, and still hasn’t touched the 10-EMA once during this entire run.

SPY Daily Chart

At this point, the price action is looking more and more like the October 1999 analog I’ve been tracking since April 8th, especially on the QQQ side. Back then, QQQ essentially went vertical, rallying for 78 straight days before it ever closed below the 20-EMA. We are only 48 days into this rally and just closed 6% above the 20-EMA. Institutions are once again buying every dip because they can’t afford to underexposed, and that creates a self-fulfilling bid under the market. If we continue to track that analog, the next pullback into the 10-EMA should be buyable. As long as key levels hold and AI names continue to deliver, this rally can persist. The two key levels I am watching on QQQ are Wednesday’s low at $686 which is also the 1.681 extension and a huge target for me, and the $653 pivot. Below either one and it will be a warning that we may finally stop going straight up.

QQQ Daily Chart

This move has evolved in phases, and understanding the sequence matters:

It started with the typical short squeeze off the lows. Then it transitioned into institutional money that was underexposed being forced to chase. From there, AI hardware names came in with strong earnings, which pushed funds to chase even harder. Now we’re in a feedback loop where big capital keeps bidding prices higher as earnings continue to reinforce the idea that there’s still upside to be had in AI tech names right now. Each phase feeds the next. That’s why this thing has been so relentless.

The magnitude of some of these moves is hard to comprehend. GOOGL, the 2nd largest company in the world, is up roughly 50% in a month. The amount of capital required to move a name of that size is incredible. MU is up around 115% off its lows, which is just nuts, and it still may not be done as the 2.618 target is at $728.

MU Daily Chart

In this kind of environment, trailing stops have been the key to staying in positions without getting shaken out too early. That said, with so many names this extended, I am getting pretty tight with my stops and have taken a good amount of profits off of the table.

The SOXX long I called out on April 26th played out well, as did the NVDA long earlier this week. I also am in the SOXX short which I laid out in detail, which, to be fair, was my first countertrend swing since the April 8th gap. As it looks now, that trade will end in a stop out as earnings continue to drive this thing higher.

That’s the reality of fighting trend. Even with a solid thesis, countertrend trades are just tougher, especially in a trend like this. One key takeaway is that countertrend trades are easier once a key level is broken. Shorting something because it looks “too extended” is not a strategy or a good idea for that matter. While that wasn’t exactly my approach, it’s still a reminder of how strong this AI market is. If I do get stopped out, I’ll look for one more short opportunity, ideally on a break of a key level with confirmation. Right now, Wednesday’s low is the main level I’m watching on SOXX for that kind of short. If I am lucky we will break down from here, I can add to the trade and it will have worked out just as well as my SLV short earlier in this year.

SOXX Daily Chart

The main issue right now is that most of the names I’ve been trading are extremely extended from their 10-EMAs, which makes new entries hard to justify. A lot of the bullish theses have already played out in the near term.

We’re in that uncomfortable phase where the market is ripping higher, but I don’t want to chase at these levels, and I also don’t want to be aggressively short outside of very short-term, tactical trades. I’ll take those on clear breakdowns, but anything beyond that doesn’t make much sense here.

When I get into this kind of environment, it becomes less about finding new trades and more about managing what I already have. That means tightening stops, protecting gains, and letting winners work.

At the same time, I’m building out a watchlist and doing the work now, studying charts, refining levels, and defining entry criteria, so that when we do get the next pullback or setup, I’m ready to act without hesitation.

This stage of the market feels like the time when bears finally capitulate and get long and bulls who have been riding the move start to size up aggressively and get cocky. That’s often when you get a pullback. It doesn’t have to happen here, but the market is starting to feel a bit frothy.

For now, I’m not interested in taking swing trade shorts, and I’m not chasing extended longs either.

The plan is simple: trail stops tighter, raise cash, and stay patient.

Before placing any trade this week, ask yourself one question: is this a reaction to what the market just did, or is it a setup I already had planned? If it’s the former, it’s probably best to sit on your hands. Step away for a bit. Go outside, get a workout in, spend time with your kids, and enjoy this beautiful life. The best trades this year have come from preparation, planning then executing, not reaction. That doesn’t change just because the market is moving fast.

With stocks extremely extended after a historic move higher, traders are asking what could possibly bring this market down.

Most would point to something like an oil supply shock. Others will say everything is priced for perfection and any small disruption could trigger outsized volatility. With rate cuts no longer right around the corner, bond yields pushing higher, and oil staying elevated, there is clearly some inflation risk being priced in by the bond market that equities are ignoring. Whether equities actually start to care about that is a completely different question.

There is always a bearish narrative sitting in the background, ready to be pulled forward the moment price starts to falter. And that’s really the key point.

The real risk to any market is not the next headline. It’s the loss of key levels.

Headlines tend to follow price, not lead it. The market decides which narratives matter based on what price is doing. If we push into resistance, stall, and then break down through key levels, that’s when narratives suddenly “matter.” In reality, what likely happened is that larger players were distributing into strength, and once that supply overwhelms demand, price breaks and the story gets attached after the fact.

Yes, elevated oil and a 20-year yield pushing above 5 percent can absolutely create the conditions for a larger pullback. But constantly trying to predict which narrative will be the trigger is mostly a waste of time.

That’s why I stay focused on price and key levels.

Right now, the main level I’m watching across most charts is last week’s pivot and Thursday’s low. On SPY, call it roughly $709 for simplicity. If that level continues to hold, this short-term trend likely keeps grinding higher as traders chase price. If we lose it, the odds of a decent retest go up quickly.

QQQ Daily Chart

Everyone is expecting a clean retest of prior all-time highs on SPY, which usually means it won’t be that straightforward. It’s very possible we push higher into the $730 area, maybe even stretch toward $740, without any meaningful pullback, and then roll over from there. If we follow something closer to the 1999 analog, that would imply a drawdown of roughly 9% from those highs, bringing price back down into the April 8th gap.

That kind of move would almost certainly spike fear and shift sentiment quickly. It would open the door to a wide range of bullish and bearish interpretations, but more importantly, it would reset positioning and create much better risk vs reward opportunities on both sides.

Both the 1999 and 1990 analogs point to a choppy May. From there, the paths diverge. The bearish version rolls over, while the bullish version consolidates further and then pushes higher into the back half of the year.

If we end up ranging within roughly plus or minus 3 percent this month, that keeps SPY contained between about $700 and $740 and keeping both of these analogs in play.

SPY Daily Chart

Right now, there are quite a few setups that look good for continuation higher, including names like LASR, RKLB, and CRUS. The issue is that most of these have earnings this week, and earnings are a binary event. They can completely invalidate an otherwise clean setup and lead to losses that are well beyond a typical 1R risk, which makes swing trading over earnings not ideal.

One name that doesn’t have earnings immediately is NVDA. Earnings are still about 16 days out, which is plenty of time for a swing trade to play out, especially in a market this volatile.

NVDA is a key name and one I cover weekly. It’s now pulled back into what I would consider a buy zone for short term swings. If it’s going to bounce and make another high in May, this is about where that move should start. Price has retraced into the 20 EMA and is testing it for the first time since the April rally began.

NVDA is at a critical spot here, and what it does next matters for the broader market. If it holds support and turns higher, it supports the idea that there’s still fuel left in this rally. If it starts breaking down and losing key levels along with longer term moving averages, then the recent breakout begins to look much more like a bull trap, which would have larger implications.

NVDA also has a history of trapping traders and delivering “gap and crap” moves around earnings. I am thinking we could see more of the same in the upcoming earnings. The current setup looks very similar to what we saw going into November 2025. Back then, earnings didn’t resolve the chop, and there’s a real chance we see something similar this time around.

I want to see some strength come in around this area and will enter a trade on the lower time frames with my stop below the daily candle. Monday’s wick was a start, pressing higher from here will confirm it. We have 4 bearish candles in a row, which tends to be the limit for NVDA before some kind of bounce. Maybe we push to a higher high, maybe we put in a lower high before earnings. But as long as key levels continue to hold, I’m looking for a bounce into earnings.

Ideally, that leads to one more push higher across semis before a larger rollover, which would line up well with the SOXX short thesis I previously laid out.

NVDA Daily Chart

SPY and QQQ gapped up again on Friday, continuing what has been an absolutely blistering rally over the past month.n SPY pushed right into the 1.382 extension of the March drop and printed a pretty clean reversal candle at that level. That also lines up almost perfectly with where the 1999 analog started to run into resistance.

SPY Daily Chart

Does that mean we have to sell off next week? Not necessarily. I still think there’s room for more upside, especially if QQQ continues to lead. Remember in 1999 when QQQ massively outperformed SPY? Today, big tech makes up such a large portion of both indices that kind of divergence is harder to get, but we are seeing a smaller version of it right now.

QQQ closed Friday with a strong bullish candle at the highs, while SPY printed more of a gravestone doji, which is a reversal signal. For me, the line in the sand is simple. If we break below Thursday’s low on both SPY and QQQ, which is the short term support, we are starting what will likely be a buyable dip. If we’re going to keep going vertical, that level needs to hold.

QQQ pushing into the 1.681 extension from the April drop comes in around $686. That would be roughly a 23% to 24% move off the lows in just over a month, and a level where I’ll be actively locking in gains and dialing back aggression.

Since the April 8th gap I’ve been buying strong names on shallow dips, but at some point short term momentum starts to fade. The 8, 9, and 10 EMA eventually give way to the 20, then the 50, and so on. What’s notable right now is that QQQ hasn’t even touched the 10 EMA. That tells you just how stretched this move is.

That said, history, especially with big tech, shows that “too stretched” doesn’t always mean “about to drop.”

Look at the 2025 move off the lows. It went more than 100 days before even closing below the 20 EMA, and when it finally did, it was brief before pushing higher for another three months. Drop that analog onto today’s price action and you could easily see a short consolidation around that 1.681 extension, followed by another leg higher through the summer.

I don’t think that’s the most likely outcome, but it’s a very real possibility. With this much liquidity and FOMO still sitting on the sidelines, shallow pullbacks can persist longer than most expect.

QQQ 2025 Analog

What outcome and analog we see from here really depends on the Trillion Dollar Titans.

• If NVDA holds $193 and turns higher, that’s a strong signal this market isn’t done. In that scenario, a push into the $230 to $240 range is very much on the table. Lose $193 and it likely drops back into a chop range, increasing the odds of broader consolidation.

• AAPL gave us a decent bearish reversal on Friday after its earnings gap. However, if it can hold $273 and reclaim Friday’s upper wick, that opens the door for a solid continuation move.

• GOOGL is a rocket ship higher right now. The $400 level looks like a magnet, and beyond that I’m watching the $425 area. If GOOGL is hitting those targets, it’s hard to imagine the broader market takes a tumble.

• AMZN is consolidating at all time highs. As long as it holds $255, the low from Thursday, the 2020 analog remains in play and the door stays open for significantly higher prices. A breakout from this range supports the case for continued upside across the market.

If these four names all take the bullish path, it’s difficult to build a strong case for a meaningful pullback. In that environment, trailing stops and with strength continues to make the most sense.

If we start to see key levels break across multiple names, that’s your signal a larger consolidation is likely underway.

One other thing worth noting is the continued shift further out on the risk curve.

Capital is rotating into higher beta, more speculative areas again. GME started to break out on Friday. Nuclear names that exploded in 2025 are starting to catch bids again. We’re also seeing early movement back into some of the more beaten down high beta tech names, including quantum computing. On top of that, there are some really solid setups developing in rare earth metals, another group that had massive runs last year.

There’s a clear theme here. We’re starting to see echoes of last year’s price action show up across multiple areas of the market. Because of that, I’m paying close attention to names that not only have strong technical setups right now, but also showed leadership during the 2025 run.

Thursday capped off an incredibly bullish month. The theme was simple: strong names got stronger, weak names went nowhere.

Since the trend-changing gap on April 8th, we’ve seen near-vertical moves across the market. This now goes down as one of the best Aprils on record for SPY, second only to April 2020.

Volume came in strong on Thursday, driven largely by big tech earnings. That gives us a clear level to trade against. A break below Thursday’s candle would likely kick off a pullback, potentially back toward prior all-time highs and the 20 EMA.

It’s worth nothing that the SPY still hasn’t touched the 10 EMA during this entire move. That one fact shows just how extended and aggressive this trend has been. Because of that, I’ve been using the 8 EMA as my guide for entries on some of the most extended and strong names.

SPY Daily Chart

SOXX: Long Before the Short

SOXX and SMH both look poised to push toward that new high I am wanting. The past two sessions offered excellent opportunities for aggressive long entries, setting up what I still expect to be a final push higher in this move.

SOXX Daily Chart

AVGO is a great example of how stretched names are behaving in this environment. After running 50% in just 18 days, it pulled back roughly 8%, printed an indecision candle followed by a hammer, and then broke out on Thursday. That same pattern showed up across multiple names. I traded variations of it in MRVL, AEHR, TSM, ARM, APLD, and COHR, among others.

In trends this strong, longer-term moving averages become far less useful. For this kind of momentum-driven environment, short-term EMAs are a much cleaner tool. The first pullback into the 8, 9, or 10 EMA tends to get bought quickly after a move like this.

Names that become extended off the 10 EMA typically pull back, find support at that short-term average, and then push to new highs. Only after that do we usually see a more meaningful correction. The key question now is how much further this move can extend before that larger pullback into bigger moving averages arrives.

TSM Daily Chart

Trillion Dollar Titans Update

AAPL delivered strong earnings Thursday night and is gapping up slightly. That removed one of the risks that the broad market was facing this week.

AMZN needs to hold Thursday’s low. A strong close below that level opens the door for a deeper retrace into lower gap fills, and start to call into question the 2020 analog.

GOOGL remains one of the strongest charts out there. $400 is within reach, but Thursday’s low is the line in the sand. If that breaks, I want to see $340 hold. Below that, this starts to look like an exhaustion gap regardless of the powerful fundamentals.

TSM and AVGO should push to new highs next before taking out Wednesday’s pivot. If the pivot breaks first, I will stop out and wait to see what unfolds.

Hot Stonks

Outside of AI and semis, rare earth stocks and a few other and hot stocks from last year are starting to show life. I know a number of you caught LAC with me and that chart still looks saucy. While many of these names are not in strong trends yet, they’re building constructive bases at key levels. When something like OKLO starts catching a bid, it signals a wild bull market, but also one that may be getting a bit frothy and nearing a top.

Nuclear is another area I’m watching closely. NLR has been consolidating in a large triangle for months and is getting close to a decision point. Thursday’s bullish gap and strong close above the 100-day SMA created a clean morning star reversal right off the point of control. If it clears overhead resistance and makes a new high, the next target is around $167. Bull thesis dies below Thursday’s low and the 200-day SMA. Key holdings in NLR are: CEG, CCJ, BWXT, UUUU, OKLO, NXE, and SMR.

NLR Daily Chart

This market is producing awesome bullish gains. It is time to protect those gains, while continuing to participate, but with enough discipline and risk management that when conditions eventually shift, we are not round-tripping those gains.

To that end, I hit multiple profit targets on Thursday, took partials, and raised stops across several positions.

Thursday’s low is the key level I’m watching. A break below it would likely signal the start of a broader pullback. I’m also keeping a close eye on SOXX for the short setup that I outlined in my From Semi to Fully Bullish newsletter.