QQQ is now up nearly 18% in just 16 trading days and is trading in price discovery at new all-time highs! Calling this rally a rocket ship might actually be underselling it. This is one of the sharpest, most extended rallies in QQQ history outside of, you guessed it, 1999.

The October 1999 parallel I’ve been tracking on QQQ and SPY since April 8th is playing out quite well. In that period, QQQ significantly outperformed SPY, and we’re seeing that same dynamic take shape again with QQQ starting to pull ahead.

There are also strong similarities to the October 2014 rally, where price went vertical following roughly a 10% correction. Today’s move is even steeper in percentage terms, but the overall feel is very similar. If we follow that analog, we’re right around the point where things began to slow down and transition into a retest phase. In 2014, the market eventually pulled back to the 100-day SMA and prior all-time highs before grinding higher for several more months ahead of any meaningful drawdown. The 2014 and 1999 analogs align with a move up into the upper boundary of the long-term trendline that has contained price since the 2009 lows.

SPY 2014 & 1999 Analogs

At this point, I’m expecting something along the lines of these analogs to play out. Both are similar to each other and, more importantly, very similar to what we’re seeing right now.

Looking at major individual names, the strength feels unsustainable. ANET, a $200B company, is up roughly 54% in just 16 days. AVGO, one of the largest companies in the world at around $2 trillion, is up about 46% over the same stretch. These are extreme moves, but I’ve learned that doesn’t mean they can’t continue higher for a while before any meaningful mean reversion kicks in.

Back during the March selloff, I mentioned that we would need leadership from big tech to get the market back on its feet. That is exactly what we’re seeing now, and then some. What strengthens the bullish case is that several mega-cap names are still well below their all-time highs. If AAPL, MSFT, and META continue to recover, while leaders like NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, and AVGO keep pushing higher, this market can continue to grind higher without much resistance. However, if earnings disappoint in those names next week, the current level of extended exuberance could snap back to reality very quickly.

We are already seeing some early signs of earnings weakness in the software space. NOW lowered margin guidance and gapped down nearly 13%, dragging names like MSFT, ORCL, CRM, PANW, and CRWD lower with it. I’ll be watching closely to see how the market responds. If this weakness gets bought up and the sector recovers quickly, it will be a strong signal that the buy-the-dip mentality is still firmly in place. If not, it could be an early crack in what has been an extremely resilient rally.

NOW Post Earnings Gap

It’s been an incredible run over the past three weeks, with nearly every bullish setup delivering outsized returns. At this point, patience matters more than ever. I’m focused on waiting for the highest-quality setups rather than forcing trades in extended conditions.

With a major cluster of earnings coming up next week, including AMZN, GOOGL, META, and MSFT all reporting on the same day, I want to see how the market reacts before getting more aggressive. I have cash on the sidelines and am looking to deploy it into strength on controlled pullbacks, especially in strong names that hold key levels.

For those degenerates itching to get more skin in the game and struggling with FOMO, here are a few setups I’m considering throwing a couple of dollar bills at.

GLW: Looking for a continuation move in a strong momentum name. Tight risk, targeting a push into earnings.

BA: Hard not to like the hammer and gap-and-go, with daily moving averages acting as support. A close below Tuesday’s candle invalidates the bullish setup.

AAOI: Absolute beast of a chart. Pulled back into the 10 EMA and holding strong. This one could easily push another 25% to 30% higher. I will be using a stop below Wednesday’s candle. If it dips more, I will likely try this name again into the $100 range.

ISRG: Has lagged over the past three weeks, which isn’t a great sign, but Wednesday’s candle is strong. It also filled the gap from last October and held major support at $450. If it’s going to recover, this is the spot. A close below Wednesday’s low would be a major red flag.

UAMY, MP, CRML, and LAC have all formed large bases and look like they may be breaking out. These are names are choppy so I prefer to use puts as protection or wide stops to avoid getting shaken out. I’ll be watching for clean breaks from consolidation or controlled pullbacks into key moving averages.

The broad market consolidated on Monday, with SPY printing an inside candle. After the bull run we just witnessed over the last two weeks, some level of slowdown, consolidation, and retesting is to be expected. That said, momentum remains firmly in the bulls’ favor for now, and it’s likely that those who missed the move are looking for any opportunity to get involved. Because of that, dips should continue to get bought. If SPY pulls back into the $700 area, which marks the prior all-time high, that level should act as solid support where buyers step in for another attempt at new highs.

SPY Daily Chart

SMH is approaching its 161.8% extension of the March drop near $470. That level should act as a reasonable resistance target for the market leading ETF, especially if price can reach it this week. This would likely coincide with NVDA filling its gap at $205.56. From there, I would expect a pullback toward the $430 area on SMH, followed by another push higher, potentially into the $495 to $500 range. I’ll be watching these levels closely and looking for opportunities to position for the next leg up.

SMH Daily Chart

I’m also watching RSP as a potential signal for when we finally get a more meaningful consolidation and retest. Unlike DIA, it has not yet made a new all-time high, but it’s getting close. If RSP pushes into the $205 level this week, that could act as resistance and give us the consolidation and retest I’m looking for before the next move higher.

The rally we just experienced was historic in both speed and scale. Moves like that have typically occurred after major corrections, not after relatively shallow pullbacks. That’s what makes this environment more complex than usual. Given that we just saw one of the most aggressive three-week rallies on record, patience is critical here. Emotion and FOMO are not your friends in this type of market.

That doesn’t mean sitting entirely on the sidelines is the answer, especially if the bullish scenario continues to play out. It just means risk needs to be managed tightly. Focusing on trading with the trend and being very selective. Prioritizing only the highest-quality setups with strongest probabilities and cleanest risk-to-reward profiles, with a heavy emphasis on protecting downside.

Space Mobile

I messaged the RLT swing trade room about ASTS in the morning as it looked like a pretty clean trade from an R:R standpoint. It’s in the space space, which is one of the hottest places to be right now. Well… actually space is freezing. Unless you’re close to the sun, then it’s way too hot. Anyway, space stocks are cool, space stocks are hot. You get it.

ASTS gapped down into the 200-day SMA, an average it tends to respect and one it hasn’t touched since June of 2025. The gap down came off a headline that doesn’t really impact the long-term thesis, and it looks like the market figured that out pretty quickly. Buyers stepped in all day Monday and we ended up with the largest bullish volume in over a year.

Now the setup is pretty clearly defined. It should not break the low of Monday’s candle or lose the 200-day SMA anytime soon. If it does, that’s a major red flag and the bullish thesis starts to fall apart. As long as that level holds, a push into the gap fill looks highly likely as Target 1, and it could happen as soon as Tuesday afternoon.

My primary target on ASTS is the horizontal resistance at 100, with a move into new all-time highs as Target 3 if momentum really kicks in.

ASTS Daily Chart

Ondas Inc

ONDS is one I’m already long, but Monday’s candle adds an interesting layer to the R:R and further defines where I want to manage risk. Any close below the 100-day SMA would be a serious hit to the bullish thesis here.

If it pulls back and retests the 100-day, that could still offer a solid entry since this name has been chopping around quite a bit recently and I don’t expect the next move to be straight forward. There’s a bit of a double bottom forming on the daily, and we just saw a notable volume spike. Given how volatile ONDS is, a push to new highs is definitely not out of the question if given enough time.

ONDS Daily Chart

After three blowout bullish weeks in a row, I would not be surprised to see some weakness or consolidation come into the market this week. However, I fully expect that weakness to get bought up. FOMO feels extreme right now, and the bulls are clearly expecting this to keep running. Anyone who missed the last two weeks is likely looking for any dip to get exposure. Because of that, I don’t expect pullbacks to be very deep across most names. Buyers will likely step in aggressively at key support levels.

The SPY chart is stretched in the short term and sitting near resistance if look at the linear parallel channel from the 2022 highs. That said, the larger channel that has contained this entire bull market since the 2009 lows still sits overhead, closer to the $720 area. We are continuing to track the dot-com analog fairly closely, which suggests that any weakness back into the prior all-time high zone around $690 to $700 should get bought. If that holds, a push toward $720 would be the next upside move.

If this scenario continues to play out, we could still have two to three more months of bullish price action before volatility starts to expand to the downside.

SPY Linear Daily Chart & Channel

At the same time, a lot of charts are extremely extended. What I’m trying to figure out now is whether we are entering something more like a 2020-style melt-up, where everything continues to rip for months, or if we are much closer to a major top. The consensus online, at least from what I’m seeing, seems very polarized. It’s either a face-ripping rally that lasts much longer, or we are right at the edge of a significant reversal. There doesn’t seem to be much middle ground.

One chart I spent time on this weekend was AMZN. It has ripped higher alongside the rest of big tech and is now sitting just below all-time highs, despite being down nearly 20% not long ago. What stands out is how closely this price action mirrors the 2018 to 2020 period.

Back in 2018, AMZN experienced a drawdown of roughly 36%, followed by a long, grinding recovery that eventually led to new highs. It then broke back below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages before launching into a sharp, vertical move that reclaimed highs, consolidated briefly, and then continued higher for several months.

In 2025, we saw a similar structure. AMZN dropped about 33%, recovered into new highs, then broke down below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages before ripping higher again. Now it’s once again approaching all-time highs.

If this analog continues to track, the next step would be a breakout to new highs, followed by a brief consolidation, and then a strong continuation move, potentially driven by earnings. Based on Fibonacci extensions, that would open the door to a move toward $290 in the near term and potentially $370 later this year.

The bears will point out that we saw a similar all-time high trap in July 2021, where price pushed back near highs before rolling over into the 2022 bear market. That’s a fair point. The difference, if this is truly a 2020-style move, is that price needs to continue making new all-time highs in a more vertical fashion.

There are clear invalidation signals to watch. If weakness comes in and does not get bought quickly, if earnings trigger a gap down instead of continuation, or if price rotates back toward the long-term moving averages around $225, then this analog is likely not playing out.

This type of move is relatively rare, and I’m not fully convinced the current macro environment supports it. But the similarities are hard to ignore, and it’s something worth tracking closely, especially if AMZN starts to show strength into earnings next week and gives us a bullish gap higher.

AMZN Daily Chart with 2020 Analog

Markets closed higher once again on Thursday, marking the 12th consecutive green close for QQQ. There’s a fierce debate right now over whether this is one of the most savage bull traps in history or the start of a face-ripping rally that could last for months.

QQQ Daily Chart

History shows it can go both ways. We’ve seen steep, vertical rallies mark the final blow-off top before major declines. One example was October to November 2021, just before the 2022 bear market. SPY dropped roughly 5%, then ripped nearly 10% in a straight line over the next month before topping out and rolling over hard.

We saw something similar in October 2015. While SPY didn’t make new all-time highs like it just did, sentiment turned extremely bullish after a steep 13% move before rolling over and making new lows.

Of course, the example getting the most attention right now, especially from bears, is March 2000. I’ve gone through that period before, so I won’t belabor it, but it’s the closest historical comparison to what we’re seeing today. A sharp ~10% drop followed by a vertical move back to all-time highs in a just a number of days.

On the bullish side, we’ve also seen breakaway gaps and lockout rallies lead to sustained upside, like in May 2020 and November 2023. In 2020 we made new all-time highs, pulled back to the 100-day SMA, held and bounced off of the average twice, and pushed higher for the next year. It shows just how important the 100-day SMA is here.

There’s even a comparable setup in October 2014 that does not fit the bull or bear narratives. The market gapped above the 200-day SMA, pushed vertically into new highs, and instead of collapsing, it chopped sideways for nearly a year before any meaningful move.

I don’t have a crystal ball. No one does. The job is to read price action, identify high-probability setups, focus on strong risk-to-reward opportunities, protect capital and pivot when wrong. Anyone claiming they know exactly what happens next is lying. All we can do is build a plan and execute it.

If the bears are right and this is a bull trap, it’s one of the craziest I’ve ever seen, right up there with some of Bitcoin’s best. The level of bullish enthusiasm and high-fiving on this move is, anecdotally, as high as I can remember. For now, it’s not my primary scenario, but if we start breaking key levels, I’ll take that idea seriously. I’m currently positioning for continuation, so I’d take some losses if that plays out, but I’ll pivot quickly.

The key level I’m watching is the 100-day SMA. A breakdown below that level, especially if it happens quickly over the next couple of weeks, would be an early warning that something larger could be unfolding. At that point, I’ll get more cautious and begin protecting and stopping out.

If we then lose and close below the 200-day SMA, I’ll fully shift to the “this was a bull trap” thesis. The cool thing is that this would likely happen only about 5% off all-time highs, giving plenty of time to hedge and protect against a more meaningful drawdown.

SPY Daily Chart & 1999 Analog

We’re also entering earnings season, which will be critical. The Trillion Dollar Titans need to participate for this rally to sustain. If we start to see breakdowns from those leaders, that’s a major red flag for anyone expecting a continued vertical move higher.

I’ve been in profit-taking mode over the past couple of days, possibly a bit early if this lockout rally continues. Going forward, I’ll be looking for better entries on consolidation or weakness, while keeping risk tight.

I still expect larger volatility at some point this year. If SPY pushes into the $720–$740 range and hits those upside targets before that volatility shows up, great. If not, I know the levels where my positioning changes.

The upper trend-line of the parallel channel is a major resistance level, and given current valuations along with the broader macro backdrop, I’m not convinced we get a sustained breakout above it like we saw in 2021. That level, along with the 1.618 extension of the recent drop, continues to define my major upside targets.

SPY Parallel Channel

The last 11 days has been one of the wildest stretches I’ve ever witnessed in the market.

In just 11 short day, both SPY and QQQ have surged to fresh all-time highs erasing months downward chop. Even Microsoft and high-beta trash heaps like BULL are pushing higher. The bulls are officially back in town, and they’re partying like it’s 1999.

Speaking of which, the 1999 analog continues to track remarkably well. From here, I’m expecting some near-term consolidation. A dip back into the price action of the prior three days feels likely before the next leg higher. As long as the 100-day SMA holds on both SPY and QQQ, that remains my base case.

SPY Daily Chart & 1999 Analog

Historical Context: 11%+ in 11 Days

Looking at history, an 11%+ rally in just 11 days for the S&P 500 isn’t completely unprecedented. What is extremely rare, however, is achieving this kind of explosive move while pushing into all-time highs.

The only real comparable instance is March 2000 , right at the peak of the dot-com bubble. That instance is similar to now in that it drew down 10%, ran to new all time highs in very short order and contained a 14% pop in just a 7 trading days. However, in all other cases, these types of violent rallies occurred after much deeper drawdowns and took significantly longer to reclaim prior highs.

This kind of price action has historically marked important bottoms in nearly every instance. While that’s somewhat obvious now that we’ve already reclaimed and surpassed the highs, it still provides valuable context.

More importantly, these explosive moves have led to higher prices one year later in almost every case, with March 2000 being the clear outlier. And no, before the permabears get too excited, I’m not calling for a dot-com-style crash tomorrow. In fact, the analog I’m tracking suggests we still have roughly 129 days before a potential market top and any kind of major unwind. So for now, let’s party like it’s 1999.

SPY 1999 Analog

Here are the historical periods where SPY (or the S&P 500) saw 11%+ gains in 11 days:

• October 1974

• February 1975

• August 1982

• October 1982

• August 1984

• November 1987

• December 1987

• October 1998

• March 2000

• April 2001

• August 2002

• October 2002

• December 2008

• March 2009

• July 2009

• October 2011

• April 2020

• Today

SPX Weekly Chart With 11%+ Gains in 11 Days

My Current Stance

Overall, I’m not a buyer at these levels on the SPY or QQQ. I expect some form of short-term correction over the next week, similar to what we saw in the 1999 analog. These pullbacks tend to be relatively shallow, often frustrating those waiting for a clean, textbook dip.

This type of “lockout rally” can persist longer than many expect, but it won’t continue indefinitely without at least some consolidation or digestion. Moves like this happen when big money is on the wrong side of the trade. The market gaps higher, shorts get squeezed first, and then under-allocated funds are forced to chase and put money to work, which only drives prices higher and extends the move far longer and higher than most think is possible.

Ideally, I’d like to see a pullback toward the $690 area or a gap fill closer to $685, where the risk-to-reward setup becomes far more attractive. However, if we continue screaming higher that level will trail up.

V-Shaped Bottoms and Bitcoin Charting

The S&P 500 is no stranger to V-shaped bottoms, they’ve almost become the norm in recent cycles. But this one has been especially agressive and steep. The velocity of the move feels more like a Bitcoin rally than that of the S&P 500.

If this were Bitcoin, I’d be watching closely for a potential all-time high trap, a common pattern in the Bitcoin chart. Hopefully the S&P 500 isn’t going to be that mean.

Even if it has, we’ll have clear signals. A decisive break below the 100-day SMA would be the first real warning sign, just like we saw with Bitcoin on October 6th when it pushed to all time highs highs and immediately lost the key levels.

As far as Bitcoin is concerned, it still hasn’t reclaimed its 100-day SMA and is sitting at a resistance. But if it does break out, a move toward the 100-week and 200-day SMAs near $87,000 becomes possible.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

The market continues to rip higher day after day, with SPY now up 10% in just 10 trading sessions. It’s an incredible and historically bullish move. When we gapped above the 200-day SMA on April 8th, I studied the entire history of the SPY chart, and the closest historical analog I could find was October 28th, 1999. So far, that analog has been spot on as we rip into new all time highs.

If you’ve been following along with me, I did not call the bottom. That never happens and is not necessary to make money. What I did do was shift bullish on March 31st after a massive reversal candle printed with the highest bullish volume in over a year. At the time, I was expecting a lower high followed by a move to new lows. But once we got the April 8th explosive gap over the 200-day SMA, which closely mirrored the 1999 setup, I adjusted once again and became more open to a more aggressively bullish setup.

That’s the job as traders. We follow price, not predictions. We adapt when the market proves us wrong, and we focus on high-probability setups with strong risk-to-reward. Historical analogs are a tool I love to use, but they are not a guarantee. They work until they fail, just like anything else. In this case, the 1999 comparison helped highlight what was possible. While many traders were surprised and caught off guard by the strength of this move, it’s actually tracking very closely to the 1999 analog highlighted over a week ago. It helped set my expectations that price could continue higher without a full retest of the gap and push to new all time highs in short order, even though that was not what I thought was likely just one day before.

SPY 1999 Analog

From here, I still think the most probable path is something similar to the 1999 playbook I mapped out on April 8th. That would mean a push to new all-time highs this week, followed by a period of consolidation and a pullback, potentially as deep as the 100-day SMA. From there, a continued grind higher toward the long-term trendline that has capped SPY since the 2008 bottom.

At that point, we could see a deeper pullback, possibly retesting the April 8th gap level, before one more leg higher. After that, if we continue to track the 1999 playbook, I would expect larger volatility to enter the market.

This framework gives me a structure to trade against. My simple rule of staying bullish above the 200-day SMA and bearish below it has worked extremely well, but I prefer having a more detailed roadmap, and that is where the analogs come in. If we lose the 100-day SMA, and especially the key support at $671 on SPY, that would be an early warning sign that this analog is breaking down and something more bearish is underway.

For this move to continue and for the 1999 analog to play out, we’ll need participation from the Trillion Dollar Titans. If we can see strength hold through earnings and our key market players hold support and continue higher, I don’t see a reason why we can’t push higher.

As long as we’re holding key levels and not seeing aggressive gaps below the 100-day or 200-day SMA, the path of least resistance remains higher. However, if we do break support, see a key reversal signal, or something more concerning, I will pivot and shift my view based on what price is telling me, just as I did during this bounce. Until that time, let’s party like it’s 1999!

SPY Daily Chart

SPY closed up another 1% on the day, marking a 9% rally off the lows in just nine trading sessions. At this pace, we could be back at all-time highs by Wednesday’s close, erasing the entire year’s drawdown in a little over a week. I don’t necessarily think it plays out that cleanly, but all-time highs are definitely back on the table.

SPY Daily Chart

From a positioning standpoint, I’ve started taking profits on names that have run hard and rotating into setups that look like they’re just getting started. On Friday I said I wanted to see confirmation from software names before getting long, and Monday’s candle delivered exactly that. I added to my MSFT trade and went long ORCL and ADBE.

While IGV gives you broad exposure to a massive amount of software names and is a decent option, I prefer picking the individual names where I see the most edge. These three are my favorites right now.

Microsoft

I’ve talked incessantly about MSFT for months and have been trading it fairly well. I’m now back in profitable territory. Monday’s candle was a strong continuation after it bounced, consolidated in a pennant, and broke higher. I trimmed some exposure last Wednesday after the gap up, just to manage risk in case we knifed lower. Instead, it held and we pushed back above the 200-week SMA, my major risk mitigation level for this name.

With a close back above that level, I think MSFT has a nice path higher into earnings, with a move back toward $400 and beyond very much in play. If this is a B-wave rally, a push toward the 100-week SMA (roughly a 50% retracement of the entire downtrend) isn’t out of the question. And if this turns out to be the bottom, then all-time highs become the bigger-picture target.

For those not long yet, I like buying a retest of the 200-week SMA if it happens, using Monday’s low as your stop or protection level. This chart shouldn’t break down from here. A close below the 200-week SMA and Monday’s low would likely send it toward $345.

MSFT Daily Chart

Adobe

I’ve featured Adobe before, and it’s finally delivering the setup I’ve been waiting for. Price held the 200-month SMA, with Monday’s candle closing back above that level while also reclaiming two prior bearish candles in the process. I initiated a position intraday on Monday and will look to add on any retest of the 200-month SMA or Monday’s range, while keeping my stop below Friday’s low.

One of the more compelling aspects of this setup is the overhead gap near $267, which should act as a magnet for price. That level sits roughly 14% above the 200-month SMA and offers an approximate 3:1 reward-to-risk profile on the trade.

ADBE Daily Chart

Oracle

Oracle has been an absolute dumpster fire lately, but the chart is starting to repair. After basing for nearly 70 days, we’re finally seeing strong bullish strength come in right off the 200-week SMA. Monday delivered a 13% rip higher, bouncing exactly off that key level.

The risk management here is straightforward and clean. Monday’s candle low, sitting right on the 200-week SMA, gives me a very firm level to work with. I’ll look to add on any retest of Monday’s range, with an initial target at the 100-week SMA — roughly 15% above Monday’s close.

ORCL Daily Chart

Last week was bonkers. I think we can all agree on that. Bulls are back in the game, and SPY and QQQ have pushed back into the distribution levels they’ve been consolidating within for the past six months.

The market feels more bifurcated than ever, and typically when key names aren’t all participating, it’s not the ideal environment for a sustained bull run. It’s usually more conducive to chop.

The bulls are pointing to SMH and saying the rest of the market will catch up and follow semis into another run toward the highs. The bears are pointing to IGV and arguing the market will follow software lower. I’m somewhere in the middle right now.

SMH Daily Chart

I can see a strong case that volatility isn’t over and that we could at least see a double bottom, with the April lows getting retested in the coming months. We are now testing the 78.6% retracement of the recent drop, which is the exact level many historical analogs hit before finding resistance and rolling back over.

At the same time, Tuesday’s gap provides solid historical evidence that we could still be headed to new all-time highs before everything is said and done. It’s possible we do both. Push to new highs in an extended flat B wave, get everyone fully bullish again, hedges removed, and capital chasing strength, only to then pull the rug and roll over into the next leg down. That would be the ultimate max pain scenario.

If this were Bitcoin, I’d say that’s exactly what happens. But SPY doesn’t always follow the cleanest max pain path the way crypto often does, so I’m still on the fence.

Because of this uncertainty and the lack of a clear edge in the broader market, I’m focusing on individual stocks with high-probability setups, defined risk, and strong risk/reward. As I’ve said many times, I’m leaning bullish as long as SPY and QQQ remain above the 200-day SMA, so I’ll stay in buy-the-dip mode while keeping shorts limited and tactical.

I do think the selloff in IGV and software, especially names like MSFT, is overdone, but I’m not stepping in front of that move yet. I want to see bullish momentum and some confirmation before trying to catch a bottom in those charts.

SPY Daily Chart

Palantir Technologies Inc

One chart that is quite interesting to me right now is PLTR.

The President tweeted about PLTR on Friday, which instantly halted its major selloff and sparked a strong bounce. Regardless of where you stand politically, it’s wild to see the financial impact his tweets are having on stocks right now, especially now that he’s targeting individual names!

But putting that aside, the real question is whether Friday’s hammer and the current support level can hold.

If PLTR breaks below Friday’s low, I think it likely moves quickly down toward the $108 area, where we have a key VWAP level lining up with the 100-week SMA. That would be a much more compelling long term buy zone. PLTR has never retested its 100-week SMA, so if it gets there, I will be quite interested and ready to click the buy button.

The risk/reward in the $110 to $90 zone is extremely attractive. A move back to prior all-time highs from that range would be roughly a 100% gain, and I’m confident I could structure the trade with less than 20% downside risk. That sets up a potential 5:1 risk/reward on a longer-term swing targeting the highs.

On the flip side, if Friday’s low holds, there’s a shorter-term opportunity. A move back into the $136 to $146 range is very possible, with a stop just below Friday’s low. That also offers a solid risk/reward setup for a quicker trade.

Either way, PLTR is setting up with clearly defined levels and creating multiple trading opportunities with quality risk/reward depending on how price reacts this week. Plus, we now know if it gets too bearish, the United States President will step in and fire off some tweets to pump it up.

PLTR Daily Chart

The strength continues in the market as SPY and QQQ closed higher once again on Thursday. Everyone seems to be assuming that CPI will drive the market lower, but even if that happens, I think dips will remain buyable for at least a few more weeks. From everything I’m seeing, this bullish move is not quite over.

Whether this is a B wave or the start of something larger and more sustained is hard to say, but that doesn’t really impact my April thesis, which is simple: stay bullish as long as SPY and QQQ are above the 200-day SMA, and look to buy weakness in the stronger names.

SPY Daily Chart

We’ve clearly seen the trend of weak getting weaker and strong getting stronger accelerate over the past couple of weeks. Strong names like MU, LITE, MRVL, SNDK, and AMAT have continued to hold up well, while weaker names like ADBE, NOW, ZS, and MSFT have remained under pressure and can’t seem to catch a bid.

While it’s true that the selling in software, especially MSFT, is likely overdone, that doesn’t mean the market has to change its opinion anytime soon. When you’re buying a stock in a downtrend after it has broken support repeatedly, you have to understand that any bullish trade will likely take time to play out. It usually requires a catalyst, whether that’s a capitulation gap down, a breakaway gap up, or a strong trend-changing candle.

The gap up on MSFT on Wednesday was aggressively sold into, sending it back below the 200-day SMA and creating a pretty bearish retest and rejection of the 200-week SMA scenario. For anything meaningful to happen on the upside, MSFT needs to reclaim that 200-week SMA and Wednesday’s candle. With earnings coming up in about 19 days, that could act as a catalyst, but for now, there’s nothing on the chart suggesting immediate upside.

MSFT Daily Chart

Since strong stocks are continuing to act well, that’s where the focus should be. Here are a few setups I’m watching:

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Semis are ripping right now, and more specifically, the memory names are leading the charge. With the rest of the group stabilizing, SMH has pushed back to all-time highs. Many of these names look attractive as long as they hold their lower gap from Wednesday.

If a stock is in a bullish trend, has a strong gap, and begins to retest that Wednesday gap in a controlled way, it should create a solid risk/reward setup. SMH looks like it could see some kind of pullback, followed by at least one more push higher. As long as we don’t get a sharp bearish gap down through Wednesday’s candle, any controlled pullback should be buyable.

Best case scenario is a controlled dip over the next few days into the $405 area, followed by a move back to new highs and a potential push toward $450 into early May.

SMH Daily Chart

CoreWeave

This name isn’t showing massive relative strength, but it’s also not getting crushed like many high-beta and software names. What stood out was Thursday’s candle, which filled Wednesday’s gap and still managed to close bullish on very high volume.

It’s now back above the 100-day SMA and approaching the apex of a large triangle pattern. The last time I traded CRWV was after the December 19th candle, which showed similar bullish volume characteristics, and that trade worked well.

What makes this setup attractive is the clear invalidation level. If price breaks below Thursday’s candle and loses the 100-day SMA, the bullish thesis is broken. On the upside, there are multiple resistance levels, but the 200-day SMA and the gap above are reasonable targets.

CRWV Daily Chart

Eos Energy Enterprises

For the bottom feeders out there, this one looks interesting. EOSE printed a 29% gap-and-go candle, which is a strong reversal signal. This has the look of a potential bottom. If it pulls back and holds Thursday’s low, it could offer a solid risk/reward setup with upside toward the 100-day SMA.

As long as Thursday’s low holds, the bullish thesis remains intact. There is significant overhead resistance given that the stock is still down 77% from its highs, but a gap fill around $9.21, roughly 50% higher, stands out as a solid longer-term target.

EOSE Daily Chart

Nebius Group

I traded NBIS long after the March 11th gap and only had to hold for two days to hit my target. I forgot about this chart for a bit and came back this week to see it printing a bearish hammer on Wednesday, followed by a strong continuation on Thursday, closing at the highest level in its history.

This is the kind of chart where dips should be buyable. It’s showing strong relative strength and looks like it’s breaking out after a large consolidation period. A move toward the 1.618 extension of the recent correction would put it around the $182 level, giving it plenty of room to run.

With momentum names like this, there isn’t always a perfect stop level. I typically use a recent candle low or a shorter-term moving average like the 8, 10, 12, or 20 EMA. However, if the bullish thesis is going to hold, NBIS should not be closing below $109 any time soon.

NBIS Daily Chart

If you’re a regular reader of this newsletter, you already know I pivoted to a more bullish stance last Tuesday. That day delivered a powerful gap-and-go with massive volume and strong follow-through that closed near the highs.

Since then, I’ve stayed in cautiously bullish mode. While the dips weren’t deep, there were solid opportunities to add exposure at key levels last Thursday and this Tuesday. I added to positions in AMD, AMZN, GOOGL, MU, RDDT and the Tuesday Top Trade feature, HOOD on those days. Wednesday’s explosive gap was the big payoff.

I took profits on all my swing trades at the open. The gap was enormous, and it made sense to lock in gains. QQQ had just gapped directly into its 100-day SMA after a nearly 3% move above the 200-day SMA! I figured if I was in profit taking mode, other market participants might be as well.

QQQ Daily Chart

Now that we’ve seen a very strong bullish pop, the natural question is: where do we go from here?

As I always do after wild price action, I went back through the charts to study similar historical setups. I’m still operating under the assumption that this rally is a B-wave, likely to form a lower high or double top before sellers step back in and we see another period of volatility. That said, I’m open to that being wrong, and for my intermediate-term swing trades, it doesn’t really matter.

That B wave view is based on many factors including:

• Heavy resistance and distribution near the prior highs on QQQ, SPY, and leaders like NVDA

• Historical chart patterns

• Average drawdowns in midterm election years

• Elliot Wave Analysis

That said, B-waves can be extremely tricky. They can even extend as high as the 138.6% extension of our A wave (pushing into new all-time highs) and trap breakout buyers before the eventual C-wave decline. With that in mind, I’m willing to adapt my thesis and trade the levels right in front of us, regardless of the bigger picture.

My simple, time-tested framework remains: bullish above the 200-day SMA, bearish below it. Right now, that framework says be bullish, at least until the 200-day SMA is violated.

SPY Daily Chart

Historical Analogs

I studied every instance where SPY gapped up above its 200-day SMA. I paid special attention to setups where the 100-day SMA was still above the 200-day but beginning to curl lower. I also was looking for instances following a large bull market.

The most similar historical example occurred on October 28, 1999. The parallels are striking (I’ve discussed this analog before).

• In late 1998, we saw a ~20% drop followed by a powerful rally that gained 54% off the lows roughly a year later. In 2025 saw a similar ~20% drop, followed by a 45% rally that topped about a year later.

• In 1999 SPY corrected just over 13% after breaking the 200-day SMA. In 2026 the SPY corrected just under 10% after breaking the 200-day SMA.

• In 1999, SPY closed up ~3.5% on the gap day. Wednesday’s gap closed up 2.55%.

• Both featured a downward-sloping 100-day SMA sitting above a still-rising 200-day SMA.

Following that 1999 gap, the market continued higher for another 148 days before eventually forming a major top and entering the dot-com bust. The 1999 gap saw almost no retest, it opened, ran, and never looked back, making new all-time highs in under 20 days.

Across all historical gap-ups above the 200-day SMA, the general path has been higher. Out of 11 instances, 7 ended up being bullish, and in many cases, very bullish. While there were 4 gaps that fail to make new highs, this type of move has more often than not led to higher prices and new all-time highs.

SPY 1999 Analog

My plan moving forward:

• I will look to buy dips into gap fills with stops below Tuesday’s candle.

• As long as the 200-day SMA holds, I’ll maintain a bullish bias.

• A quick close back below the 200-day would be quite bearish and could lead to a retest of recent lows.

Yes, sometimes it really can be that straightforward: bullish above the 200-day SMA, bearish below. Check out the video below where I walk through the 11 similar gaps in SPY’s history and what they could mean for current price action.

Not much happened on Monday. The market closed slightly higher, and most of my watchlist was mixed with small gains and small losses across the board.

That said, both SPY and QQQ have now put in four consecutive bullish candles with declining volume each day. If we gap up or continue pushing higher into the 200-day SMA over the next day or two, I view that level as solid resistance. I’ll be watching for selling pressure to come in there, which could push us back down for a retest of Thursday’s and Tuesday’s large bullish candles.

If we start breaking below Thursday’s low, that’s an early warning sign. A break below Tuesday’s low would be more significant and would signal another flush lower. However, as long as those levels hold, which they should, the next pullback should be buyable with decent risk/reward. The target would be a move back above the 200-day SMA and potentially into the 100-day SMA, which is now curling lower and should act as another strong resistance level if we get there.

There are still some concerning bearish structures across key names like GOOGL, MU, NVDA, and AVGO. We’re seeing potential double tops and head and shoulders patterns, so if those recent pivot levels start breaking, we could see another round of meaningful selling.

That said, my stance hasn’t changed. I’m still looking for a bullish bounce during April and leaning net long while trading around key levels. That means staying quick and nimble each day, taking profits into resistance levels and looking to re-enter on dips.

As long as we remain below the 200-day, I remain cautious. But this still feels like the type of environment where we get a choppy, overlapping, frustrating B wave bounce.

SPY Daily Chart

Robinhood Markets Inc.

HOOD has fallen 58% from peak to trough after topping last September, well before most tech names put in their highs. It broke both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs early, giving clear warning signs of the weakness to come.

At the same time, it was up a massive 417% from its April lows, so a retest was more than warranted. That retest has now brought it back to a critical level, with confluence at the 100-week SMA, the prior all-time high, and the anchored VWAP from the November 2023 pivot.

The last time weekly RSI hit this level, it marked the absolute low on the stock. On top of that, we now have bullish divergence building on the daily RSI.

What I really love about HOOD right now is the clearly defined support level that should hold, and a very clear point where the bull thesis breaks down. Any sustained move below the $63.00 level is a major problem for the bulls. It’s also important to remember that just because a stock is down 58% doesn’t mean it can’t drop another 58%. We’ve seen that play out before, just look at Robinhood competitor Webull.

If HOOD can bounce here, the first major resistance sits around $85, with minor resistance near $75. A move to $85 would represent roughly a 30% gain from the 100-week SMA.

There’s also an unfilled gap at $98, which would be about 50% higher for those with strong holding power. For those who still believe in the long-term fundamentals, the Elliott Wave structure does suggest the potential for new highs.

That said, I don’t think HOOD makes a move to new highs without the broader market participating. I would need to see much more confirmation before leaning into that scenario.

HOOD Daily Chart

Check out the Tuesday Top Trades Video with Jerremy Newsome for an in-depth breakdown of the markets, along with detailed analysis of some of our favorite stocks and scan results. Don't miss the actionable insights!

Happy Easter! Christ is Risen. Can the Markets Follow Suit?

Despite Thursday’s sharp volatility, the major indices closed nearly flat compared to Wednesday. As long as we continue chopping in this high-volatility environment below the 200-day SMA, I’m prepared for anything.

Since Tuesday’s strong reversal candle on elevated volume, I’ve been watching for a relief bounce into April. However, most of the major downside setups remain intact. The QQQ still needs a decisive close above its 200-day SMA to negate the risk of a quick flush toward the $540 zone.

QQQ Daily Chart

Based on the key charts I follow, we appear close to putting in a bottom and starting the next wave higher. That said, this upcoming leg higher looks likely to be B-wave with a lower high after the significant destruction we’ve seen across the charts. History shows that a bounce like Tuesday’s is often just a short-term low, not the ultimate bottom, before a more punishing C-wave drop gets underway.

The tricky part? B-waves are among the most deceptive moves in technical analysis. By the time the rally gains traction, many will be celebrating a return to new all-time highs… right before the rug gets pulled for a violent five-wave decline that catches everyone offsides.

This market was simply too well-hedged and pre-positioned for a drop for the “real” crash to arrive immediately. Instead, we’ve seen a relatively controlled, stair-step decline, classic behavior for an A-wave.

SPY Daily Chart

Signs of Emerging Strength

Several key ETFs are showing tentative resilience:

• IWM held its 200-day SMA, yet is still stuck between its long term moving averages.

• DIA defended its prior all-time high, retested the 200-day SMA from below for the 4th time, and is holding.

• SMH reclaimed its 100-day SMA after only two days below it and pushed back into its point of control.

These are constructive developments and point to a potential bounce brewing. However, all three charts are now pushing into meaningful resistance zones, which should make next week particularly interesting and could mean more chop is heading our way.

ARKK remains in a well-defined downtrend channel and recently found support at the lower trend-line. A move higher, similar to February’s relief rally would make sense. It should find resistance near the $75-$80 level, where the upper channel line converges with longer-term moving averages.

ARKK Daily Chart

Sector Insights

We’re also seeing key supports hold across several major sectors:

• XLF (Financials), XLY (Consumer Discretionary), XLP (Consumer Staples), and XLV (Health Care) found footing near the 100-week SMA.

• XLI (Industrials) held the 200-day SMA.

These developments suggest some form of bounce could be developing now. That said, bulls shouldn’t get overly excited. Most of these sectors look likely to stall at lower highs before turning down again for another leg lower, adding further weight to the broader A-B-C analysis above.

XLY Daily Chart

Gold and Bitcoin

Gold is playing along nicely. It either put in its low or the next dip will be a buyable one before a solid push higher. The metal touched its 200-day SMA, bounced strongly, and has already reclaimed the 100-day SMA. This isn’t an environment for aggressive breakout buys, so I’d approach any new gold or IAU (the ETF I use) positions on limit orders.

XAUUSD Daily Chart

Bitcoin is as sideways as it gets and shows no clear signs of resuming an uptrend. It’s essentially a coin flip from here: resistance sits overhead near $74,000, with next support below around $59,000. I still expect another lower low before this bear market finally ends, and I don’t expect it to end for several more months. Once BTC works its way back down to the 200-week SMA and its realized price around $54,000, the long-term risk/reward becomes much more compelling.

Trade of the Day: ALAB

My favorite chart from Thursday was ALAB (Astera Labs). I sold puts on Wednesday, then sold more puts and bought shares Thursday morning. The green to red move with a strong bullish engulfing candle was impressive to say the least.

I would have preferred higher volume, but the price action is still quite compelling: it closed back above the 100-week SMA after retesting a major prior resistance level (now support) and filled the breakaway gap from last July, a level I’ve been watching for six months.

The stock also dropped about 17% below its trend channel, mirroring its behavior from last April. The similarities are striking. Now we’ll see if we get sustained bullish follow-through.

I plan to add more on a dip back to the 100-week SMA, with a final add at $92.49 if it gets there. I do not want to see a close below that level which is a major support and the point of control, as it would begin to invalidate the bullish setup.

ALAB Daily Chart

I last wrote on Monday afternoon when things looked bleak. Multiple key levels had been taken out, but after so many consecutive bear days, a relief bounce felt overdue.

We didn’t have to wait long. Tuesday delivered a strong gap up that not only filled the gap above but blew right through it. Wednesday followed with another gap higher and another solid green close. The market has now put in two very strong days.

The question on everyone’s mind is this: Is this just a dead cat bounce, or the start of something more bullish?

I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can lay out the key levels that matter most right now and what the bigger picture might be telling us.

Note: I’m writing this before Trump’s big April Fools speech this evening. I expect his comments will generally lean toward the idea that the war is winding down, which should be market-friendly in the short term. That said, in this environment, one tweet or sentence can override any chart or level.

SPY Daily Chart

The Bigger Picture on SPY and QQQ

If we zoom out, SPY and QQQ are still telling slightly conflicting stories.

SPY looks like it has begun a B-wave higher, while QQQ still has the potential for one final leg down. One of them is lying. And in this market, it has been difficult to tell which.

When the macro picture gets murky, I usually do one of two things. I wait for clarity, or I zoom into the candles and navigate the short-term mess as best I can. Lets zoom.

SPY gave us a very bullish candle on Tuesday accompanied by the highest volume of the year. That kind of candle should hold for several weeks to over a month at least. If it doesn’t, things get quite bearish. So this candle gives us a solid level to base risk management around.

That said, it is not the most ideal setup. Because of that, on any retest, I want to buy as deep as possible into Tuesday’s candle to improve my R:R. Chasers are getting punished hard on both sides right now. This is absolutely not a market to be chasing, especially when FOMO is running high.

What complicates things further is that we are still trading below the 200-day SMA, and we have not seen clear capitulation or hit any obvious major support. This bounce still fits the classic framework of a 200-day SMA retest before the next leg lower. We see this pattern repeatedly when SPY breaks below the key moving average.

My overall game plan is to sell into the 200-day SMA area. There is also a cluster of anchored VWAPs in that area creating a resistance zone roughly between $655 and $665 on SPY. I expect some selling pressure to develop there, which should bring price back down into Tuesday’s candle.

As we retrace, I will look to get long again, ideally deeper into that Tuesday range. I will hedge under Tuesday’s low if we reach it.

The violent buying over the last two days has largely been short covering. Now we will see whether real buyers step in to pick up the baton and push us nicely higher. If not, this large bounce, even while aided by news that the war may be winding down, could simply be a neckline retest or dead cat bounce.

QQQ Daily Chart

The Trillion Dollar Titans (Mixed Signals)

For any sustained rally to take hold, the Trillion Dollar Titans need to participate meaningfully. Right now, the signals remain mixed:

• NVDA is retesting the 200-day SMA, tracking close to the bearish path I outlined on Monday. Massive resistance sits at $179 to $183, but on the bullish perspective it has reclaimed $169, which now acts as support.

• AAPL looks poised for a quick push toward $260 to $265. It reclaimed the 200-day SMA in a single day, so I am not even counting that as a true break. It remains one of the strongest names in the group, though it lagged the broader bounce the last two days. This could offer upside opportunity if bulls take control.

• GOOGL did not quite reach my ideal buy zone and closed back above the key $295 level, though not by much. This can easily be read as a head-and-shoulders neckline retest, which would target the 200-day SMA again. I will still buy dips but likely will pyramid in rather than the ideal one large high R:R entry. A close above the 100-day SMA would be bullish and should target new all-time highs. Big resistance sits at $310.

• MSFT still looks vulnerable to another leg down toward $450 after coming close to a 200-week SMA retest. If it starts closing back above the 200-week SMA, I will shift my view. But until then, I expect at least one more low. Even if SPY, QQQ, and the stronger names make higher lows, MSFT could still print a lower low.

• AMZN could be forming a giant double bottom targeting the gaps at $224. The stock has been extremely choppy and will likely follow the broader market. Overall, I still think the overhead gaps get filled, possibly after one more quick dip toward $194.

• AVGO remained weak, never reaching its neckline and staying firmly below the 200-day SMA. I could see it pushing up toward $340, chopping around, then resuming lower. Not much edge here for now.

• META filled the gap from March 25th 2026 and April 30th 2025 in extremely volatile fashion, whipsawing both bulls and bears. It is still well below the 100-week SMA and has not yet closed above the March 26th candle. If it does that, it should press into the underside of the 100-week SMA, where I expect stiff resistance.

• TSM reclaimed the 100-day SMA in a day. If it can push through the anchored VWAP from the ATH, there is a high probability of filling the gap near $365. If not, expect chop around current levels before likely resolving back toward the 100-day and the gap below.

• TSLA is still firmly below the 200-day SMA and locked in a stair-step decline since its December 2025 high. Watch support near $339 and resistance at the 200-day SMA.

None of these names give a conclusive green light that the bounce will be sustained. Based purely on price action, the bulls still have significant work to do. The structures remain broken, and the bear thesis is very much alive.

That said, candles like the one we saw on Tuesday often mark at least a short-term bottom, sometimes lasting a month or more. With that in mind, it makes sense to carry some bullish exposure. Why not enjoy a strong April before the classic sell in May, even if that old adage has not worked particularly well in recent years?

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We’ve now reached the point where Iran’s leaders are tweeting U.S. stock market
”advice”, and the wild part is they actually nailed it on Monday. The gist of what they said is that this is a “sell the rip” environment, which, if you’ve been reading this newsletter or just watching recent price action, you already knew. It’s still a real wild time in the markets.

Futures opened lower on Sunday night, but by Monday morning SPY gapped up, as has become the new normal. That gap got sold off, because that’s what happens in bear markets. The best-case scenario in the short term would be a decent-sized gap down in the coming days where bulls actually step in and buy it. If we gap down and the bulls don’t show up, then the bulls have a real problem and we’re likely entering the panic phase of this move.

SPY Daily Chart

I go over the markets and all your favorite charts in the video below, so check it out for a detailed breakdown of where we stand.

A few key things happened today: SMH broke key support as TSM fell below its 100-day SMA, NVDA sold off further, and MU broke down hard. IWM finally lost its 200-day SMA, giving up the bullish edge that small caps had been clinging to for the past few days. We also saw AAPL break its 200-day SMA, which is a big bearish development.

It looks like all of the Trillion Dollar Titans have more room to fall from here. Nothing about the NVDA chart is bullish right now. AAPL is below its 200-day SMA, with its next key support sitting just below current price levels before the 100-day SMA. GOOGL looks destined to test its 200-day SMA, a level it desperately needs to hold. MSFT and META are in full-blown crash mode. AMZN broke its 100-week SMA and has a gap below at $194 that needs to fill. AVGO and TSLA are both below their 200-day SMAs and sitting in no-man’s-land, with meaningful support still further down.

The QQQ looks like it has a little more downside before we get a 4th wave correction up into the $573–$583 level. After that, it should push back to a new low near the prior all-time high zone around $530–$540. The SPY is telling a slightly different story and suggests the next bounce could be larger and more drawn out, possibly reaching into the 200-day SMA and taking a few weeks to play out. Either way, the charts are saying we’re not yet near a durable bottom. Of course, there’s always the possibility that full-on panic hits and we drop straight down another 2-5% on SPY to reach the 600 range. I haven’t entirely ruled that out.

QQQ Daily Chart

Unity Software

One of our Top Trades today comes from Jerremy Newsome himself. He has mentioned and discussed U a few times in past Tuesday Top Trades videos, and today’s trade is the clearest bull signal it has given us since it broke below the 100-day SMA back in late January.

The stock has been trying to bottom after a disastrous breakdown into earnings and is working hard to form a double bottom. On Friday, U was one of the strongest names on the tape, gapping up and closing nearly 15% higher with a bearish hammer candle. It closed just over that candle on Monday, triggering breakout buyers.

The trade now would be a limit buy somewhere into the top of that big bearish hammer, with a stop below it. If it closes back below Monday’s candle anytime soon, that would be a signal to mitigate risk. But if it closes back below Friday’s candle, the bull thesis is dead, killed by AI along with everything else.

The ultimate target would be the $27.00 range to fill the gap, though $23.00 would likely act as resistance on the way up.

U Daily Chart

Alphabet Inc

GOOGL is a really interesting chart right now. For one, it has about as perfect a head and shoulders pattern as you can get, with a clean break below the neckline. It has yet to retest that neckline, which supports the overall thesis of the bull trade, believe it or not.

If GOOGL can drop down to the 200-day SMA and the gap at $261 and find a bottom without a severe break of the 200-day SMA, it could make for a nice trade — whether GOOGL is eventually headed lower or not.

Say the correction is over and that was the full ABC move, and it’s now heading to new highs. That would be a great buy zone, obviously. But say this is just the first leg in a larger correction that will eventually take it to the Warren Buffett gap and the 100-week SMA. Even under those circumstances, it should see a B-wave bounce higher, at least into the neckline around $294.

This setup gives decent risk-reward and the opportunity to collar the position around the neckline, locking in a solid win either way. If it closes strong below the 200-day SMA and doesn’t regain it quickly, the bull thesis is in trouble and hedging or stops are likely in order.

GOOGL Daily Chart

The selling picked up steam again on Friday, with big tech once again leading the way down. META and MSFT are in absolute free fall, while NVDA, GOOGL, and AMZN all broke key technical levels. Unlike MSFT and META, those three — along with much of the broader market — have only been under heavy pressure for about three days. This raises the odds of continued downside this week. I will note that BTC gave us zero directional help this weekend as its about as flat over the weekend as I have ever seen it.

As I’ve been warning for the past two months, ever since the 100-day SMA broke on SPY, the risk of a larger sell-off has been elevated. Historically, when SPY gaps below the 200-day SMA and fails to reclaim it, the subsequent declines tend to be brutal.

I don’t usually focus heavily on the news — price action remains my primary guide. That said, I spent time this weekend reviewing historical conflicts involving oil supply shocks. Let’s just say, the results lean bearish.

There is a real risk that the current Iran conflict escalates or drags on far longer than the Trump administration or the markets would prefer. Unlike the tariff pivots in 2025, Trump cannot simply walk this back. Multiple parties are now involved, all needing to reach agreement. Uncertainty is enormous — and markets hate uncertainty.

Geopolitical Conflicts & Oil Shocks

Looking at geopolitical conflicts broadly, the data is mixed. We often see a sell-off, but it can be mild, with markets returning to highs relatively quickly.

However, when an oil supply shock enters the picture, the outlook turns significantly more bearish. Initial declines frequently reach the 15–20% range, with even deeper drawdowns possible if the disruption fuels sustained inflation or tips the economy toward recession. Oil supply shocks reliably amplify market pain, pushing drops well beyond the typical ~7% baseline for non-oil geopolitical events.

1973: Yom Kippur War + Arab Oil Embargo

The classic example is the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the subsequent Arab Oil Embargo.

The war itself lasted roughly one month. The market didn’t drop sharply during the fighting because investors initially viewed it as short-lived and contained. However, the broader index had already been in a decline earlier in 1973 and was pushing into the 200-day SMA in what resembled a B-wave.

The real damage came after the embargo triggered a massive oil price spike. The controlled selling we saw early in 1973 looks eerily similar to the action we’re experiencing right now. SPX broke the 200-day SMA, retested it twice in the following weeks, then rolled over. Later, it staged a larger B-wave that retested the 200-day SMA once more before the brutal C-wave sell-off unfolded into 1974.

SPX 1973 Yom Kippur War + Arab Oil Embargo

Current Outlook and Key Levels

It is a high-probability that SPY moves lower into the $600–$610 support zone on SPY. We have the prior ATH, a key gap at $600.54 and the 100-week SMA all forming support at that level. The main question is how we get there:

• Do we see a bounce first, retesting the 200-day SMA?

• Or do we drop straight down in a fear-driven waterfall?

If we plunge directly into the $600–$610 area without a meaningful retest of the 200-day, I would expect a 1973-style pattern to play out: a B-wave rally back to retest the 200-day SMA, followed by another leg lower. That next wave lower should take us at least to the May 12, 2025 gap fill around $569 — roughly an 18% drawdown from the all time high. That magnitude lines up closely with historical oil-shock declines.

To gauge which scenario is unfolding, I’ll be watching the Trillion Dollar Titans closely, along with key ETFs like SMH, XLF, and XLE, plus the DXY and TLT.

With so many key supports broken and market structure altered, I’ve shifted firmly into “sell the rip” mode until proven otherwise — or until we reach support levels where the risk/reward improves significantly which at this point is the $600-$610 level on SPY. While I will still buy selective dips, I’m doing so less aggressively than before, with a longer time horizon in mind for any new positions.

SPY Daily Chart

The sell-off intensified on Thursday, marking a full week since the SPY closed below its 200-day simple moving average. Historical price action has shown that reclaiming this key level within two days is necessary to avoid a painful downside for the bulls. One week later after no reclaim came, that ugly outcome is unfolding in real time.

The SPY has now corrected about 7.5% from its recent highs but has only retraced a modest 23.6% of the rally off the April lows. Meanwhile, the QQQ is down nearly 10% and has similarly retraced just over 23.6% of its move from those lows.

When we zoom in on the Trillion-Dollar Titans (the heavyweights driving the indices), the charts are far more broken. Several names have already surrendered nearly all of their 2025 gains, and most have broken critical support levels.

At roughly 43% of the QQQ and 32% of the SPY, what these Tech Titans do next matters enormously. Without strength from this group, a sustainable return to the bull market is impossible. This is precisely why I track these names so closely.

We first saw signs of weakness in the MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) when it topped on October 29th alongside the QQQ. While the SPY managed a new high in January 2026, both QQQ and MAGS formed lower highs. This divergence echoed a similar pattern in 2025, when MAGS peaked 63 days before the broader market. These stocks are truly make-or-break for the indices right now, and the setups are leaning heavily toward break.

MAGS Daily Chart

NVDA

The big dog in tech still holds a market cap over 4 trillion dollars (for now). NVDA has been locked in a clear distribution pattern for the past 245 days. It repeatedly tested the $193 resistance level only to get rejected by heavy selling. It has now broken below its 200-day SMA and is approaching the critical $171 support that has held throughout this distribution process.

If that level fails, there is little meaningful support until the prior all-time high near $153. The 100-week SMA currently sits in the mid-140s and continues inching higher. Assuming we are in an ABC corrective structure from the October 29 high, we are likely close to entering the swift and volatile C-wave lower.

If NVDA breaks below $170 dollars convincingly, it is hard to imagine the broader market not following suit. A drop toward the 100-week SMA in the $140s could offer nice risk/reward for a B-wave bounce back toward the $170 resistance. However, a weekly close below the 100-week SMA without quick reclamation would be bearish and open the door to much lower prices.

NVDA Daily Chart

AAPL

AAPL is holding up best among the group, down only about 12% from its prior all-time highs. It remains above its 200-day SMA, for now. As long as that level holds, a short-term bounce toward the 100-day SMA remains possible if the market finds some relief.

If AAPL loses the 200-day SMA, the next major support lines up with the 100-week SMA and horizontal level near $237, representing roughly a 20 percent drawdown from all time highs. A break below that would likely target the $215 area (major gap and support).

Should AAPL close comfortably below the 200-day SMA, the broader market will take notice and likely follow lower.

AAPL Daily Chart

GOOGL

GOOGL seemed like the safe haven among the big tech names until its February earnings gap exposed cracks. Since the post-earnings gap down, the chart has shown repeated breakdowns: a swift close below the February 5th bullish candle, loss of the 100-day SMA, and repeated rejections at the anchored VWAP from the highs.

This Tuesday delivered the biggest crack yet: a decisive break below the $295 key support and confirmation of a head-and-shoulders pattern. GOOGL went nearly straight up in 2025, leaving sparse horizontal support. The next support zone is the gap fill near $261, which also aligns with the 200-day SMA.

A bounce back to the $295 dollar resistance could set up a quick short back down to the 200-day SMA, where longs would once again have decent risk/reward. Losing the 200-day SMA would bring the Warren Buffett gap and 100-week SMA into play, as there is little to no support on this name until that key level.

GOOGL Daily Chart

MSFT

MSFT is just 5 percent away from breaking below its April 7 low. It has erased nearly all of its 2025 gains, is down around 35% from highs, and has already slipped below the 200-week SMA and 50-month EMA. A close below the 200-week SMA would be the first since 2012, a significant shift in character after more than a decade of strength.

A multi-week to multi-month bounce looks probable soon, potentially taking MSFT back to at least $412 and more likely toward $450 (underside of the 100-week SMA). That said, anyone going long here should recognize the elevated risk: this is uncharted territory for the stock in over a decade. In a worst-case scenario, the 200-week SMA could flip to resistance, and a gap-down on earnings could push MSFT back into the 200s.

MSFT Daily Chart

AMZN

AMZN has held relatively well at the 100-week SMA. As long as it defends that level, a push toward the 100-day and 200-day SMAs looks feasible before a deeper drop into the gap fill near 176 dollars.

I expect AMZN will ultimately erase most (if not all) of its 2025 gains in a final C-wave, with longer-term support around the 200-week SMA. The question is timing: will it deliver one more decent bounce first, or head straight down? AMZN is one of the choppier names right now. In a headline-driven market, it is close to a coin flip. Watch the 100-week SMA closely. A break below it increases the odds of a direct move toward the 177 dollar level.

TSM

Though not in the QQQ or SPY, TSM is one of the world’s largest companies and a critical part of the AI ecosystem. It serves as a clean gauge of sentiment toward AI right now. TSM is holding up well, down only 16 percent from its all-time highs, and has yet to test its 100-day SMA.

After Thursday’s bearish gap and go after the rejection at the anchored VWAP from the ATH, a break below the 100-day SMA looks likely. If the gap at $307 holds, a bounce toward the overhead gap fill at $365 is still possible. However any bounce from here likely is a B wave higher before the C wave takes us even lower.

TSM Daily Chart

AVGO

Similar to NVDA, AVGO has been in distribution for roughly 200 days and recently broke below its 200-day SMA. Support is thin until the prior all-time high near $250 . With a clear head-and-shoulders pattern in place, the chart strongly favors lower prices. Another 23% drop to the 100-week SMA would not be surprising for this volatile name.

AVGO Daily Chart

TSLA

TSLA has also broken below its 200-day SMA and looks like it is headed toward lower support around $339 before any major level comes into play. I suspect the upcoming SpaceX IPO (expected in Q2) could pressure TSLA longer-term by giving investors another way to gain exposure to Elon Musk’s ecosystem.

In the near term, TSLA continues to respect a massive parallel channel dating back to 2023. The lower trendline of that channel aligns nicely with the 100-week SMA, suggesting that zone is likely an area to watch if it drops further.

TSLA Daily Chart

META

Last and probably least we have META which dropped 8% on Thursday after losing its 100-week SMA just days earlier. It also broke the key trendline held since the November low. See, losing the 100-day SMA is generally an early warning sign of more trouble ahead.

META is now down 31% from its ATH, and the gap near 500 dollars looks destined to fill. It is only a matter of timing. The chart looks bearish overall but watch for a retest of Thursday’s candle. Failure to hold the $485 to $500 dollar zone would bring the deeper gap fill near $400 dollars into focus.

META Daily Chart

TL;DR
The market sell-off is gaining momentum one week after the SPY broke its 200-day SMA and failed to reclaim it. While the indices have only given back a shallow portion of the prior rally, the true leaders, the Trillion Dollar Titans, have already surrendered far more of their 2025 gains and appear set up to continue lower. NVDA, AVGO, and GOOGL look ready to cascade lower at any moment, while MSFT and META have already fallen hard. AAPL and TSM are holding up relatively better for now, and AMZN may see some near-term upside but ultimately looks likely to resolve lower. Without a meaningful recovery in these heavyweights, which dominate the weightings in both the SPY and QQQ, a substantial and sustainable bounce in the market seems unlikely. Watch the highlighted support levels closely. Breaks lower could accelerate the decline, while holds may allow for short-term bounces.

Market sentiment has shifted. The “buy the dip” crowd has officially turned into the “sell the rip” crowd. For the second time this week, we gapped up into the 200-day SMA and rejected at that level. While it looks like the market is trying to form a short-term bottom, there is a lot of overhead resistance and bearish sentiment keeping it down.

As long as we stay below the 200-day SMA, the bears remain in control. Now that we’ve closed below it for the fifth day in a row, the more likely outcome is another push lower after a B wave bounce.

SPY Daily Chart

Bond Market Pressure

The Trump administration is pushing daily for a resolution with the Iran conflict. One major reason could certainly be the bond markets recent behavior. Last Friday, the 10-year yield broke out and pushed into the 4.45% range. The 10-year has been forming a large triangle pattern since 2023. A move toward the upper end of that range lines up with strong horizontal resistance around 4.6%.

That would not be bullish for equities. As the risk-free rate pushes back toward levels last seen in 2023, it tightens financial conditions and pressures valuations. If yields break out from that longer-term triangle structure, it would be a meaningful headwind for risk assets.

10 Year Yield Daily Chart

The Government’s Dilemma

Higher yields create a major problem for the government because they increase borrowing costs and interest expense. There is a strong incentive to avoid a sustained move higher in rates. The challenge is that inflation remains above target. If energy prices continue to rise, that pressure persists. This limits the policy options available without potentially reigniting inflation. If the war persists and the Straight of Hormuz remains disrupted we would likely start to see inflation tick up in the economic data making things even more difficult for the new Fed president.

Another way to view the bond situation is through the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. TLT is trying to bottom after breaking below support around $86. If TLT can rally back toward the 100-day and 200-day SMAs to fill the gap above, that would likely support equities move higher and align with a B wave bounce. On the flip side, if TLT breaks below recent lows, it is a clear red flag suggesting weak demand for long-duration bonds.

TLT Daily Chart

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is the other chart to watch. It hasn’t broken out from its year-long base yet, but a move higher would be bearish for risk assets. A break above $100 would be a notable signal and likely would align with the next leg lower in equities. When the dollar rises, it pulls liquidity out of the system, hitting tech stocks and Bitcoin the hardest.

DXY Daily Chart

SPY Levels and the Road Ahead

Risk is elevated with a fifth consecutive close below the 200-day SMA. The trillion-dollar leaders are still not participating, which I will cover in tomorrow’s newsletter. SPY is holding above support around $650 but remains below resistance near $661. Until that changes, the market is stuck in a sideways to bearish range where rips continue to get sold.

This selloff has been relatively controlled so far, stepping lower rather than breaking down all at once. It still looks like an A wave, with a larger C wave potentially still ahead.

While Earth is Bearish, Space is Bullish

Despite the broader weakness, the space sector is showing real momentum. Several names pushed higher on Wednesday and continued to follow through. Some of the strongest charts in the space, some pun intended, include:

ASTS (AST SpaceMobile)

ASTS looks like it is either in, or has completed, an ending diagonal that would mark the end of a large move higher. However, if that count is correct, it would also suggest this is just the beginning of a much larger bullish trend for the name. I like how it has held the 100-day SMA as if that was its job, and now we are starting to see it base and establish a solid support level. Since it is such a volatile name, a push to new all-time highs is well within reason, especially considering the relative strength it has shown lately. For a short-term trade, the stop would be any close below the 100-day SMA, as that would likely open the door for a larger pullback, at least down toward the 200-day SMA.

ASTS Daily Chart

RKLB (Rocket Lab)

RKLB just pushed into my target zone on Wednesday from a trade I highlighted in the Friday Financial Forecast swing trade video. It held the 100-day SMA and bounced right into its usual resistance level. A close above $75 gives this one a real chance to push to new highs. If it can gap out of this range, that would be even better. That said, it could just as easily continue ranging between $66 and $75 until it gets a true breakout or break down.

RKLB Daily Chart

PL (Planet Labs)

PL might be one of the strongest stocks on the planet right now. It gapped up on earnings and is holding that move with impressive relative strength. At this point, I would not want to see it close below the pivot formed by the prior three-day candles. As long as that level holds, the sky is the limit. If it does break below, it likely fills the earnings gap, but given the strength of this trend, that would still likely be a buyable dip back into the mid-20s near the 100-day SMA.

PL Daily Chart

FLY (Firefly Aerospace Inc)

FLY is not in the same established uptrend as the other three names, quite the opposite. However, it is showing signs of basing. It just closed above two of the largest bullish volume candles on the chart on Wednesday, and it has recently reclaimed the 100-day SMA and all of its moving averages. Monday’s low should hold, and as long as it does, this one has room to run as it attempts to form a double bottom on the weekly chart. A close above $34 would confirm that pattern, which is roughly 25% higher than Wednesday’s close.

FLY Daily Chart

The market was set to gap down at the open on Monday morning when Trump dropped a bomb of his own in the form of a Truth that was later called a lie. At 7:00am, he claimed that the US and Iran had been engaged in very productive talks all weekend and that he would be postponing any and all military strikes for the next five days. Yup, you read that right…just in time for the weekend once again.

This was a major de-escalation from the original 48-hour deadline that had been set to expire Monday morning. The market reacted instantly. SPY surged 3.7% in the first 15 minutes and opened above Friday’s candle. But when Iran responded, saying none of that was true, the market gave back a portion of the move after once again rejecting the 200-day SMA. Even so, it still managed to close up over 1% on the day with a huge volume candle. The takeaway is clear: the market is looking for any excuse to push higher right now and is eager to buy or cover on good news.

The key level we’ve been watching remains the 200-day SMA. Monday marked the second consecutive close below it, and if we can’t reclaim that level tomorrow, history suggests that lower prices are likely coming, and sooner rather than later. SPY has now rejected twice at the 200-day SMA. To shift momentum, bulls need to push price back above the average and close convincingly above Monday’s high to show they are back in control. Even then however, the likelihood of a B wave, lower high in many of the key charts we are watching is high. Some big levels have been broken and risk here in is elevated.

SPY Daily Chart

In a highly news-driven market, where a single social media post can completely change a chart, there is nothing wrong with taking a step back, de-risking a bit, and waiting until you can find a real edge. Overtrading and swinging for home runs during volatile periods often leads to drawdowns that can get large quickly because of how fast things are moving.

Also, when stocks are beaten down and trading below key support levels, it doesn’t mean they can’t be great long-term holdings. It just means you’re buying into a downtrend, and your time horizon needs to be much longer than if you were buying a momentum stock in a strong uptrend. It also means you’ll likely have to sit through some pain and red before things turn, because you’re not going to nail the exact bottom. In these situations, shares are your friend. Options lock you into a timeframe where you have to be right, and that’s a tough game to play in a choppy, volatile market in a downtrend.

Bottoms take time to form. Real reversals are usually sparked by a catalyst and often don’t see true momentum return until a bullish gap or a strong confirmation candle, many times around earnings. If you’re buying 30 DTE options, you’re simply not giving the trade enough time to work.

Take MSFT for example. Do I think we’re nearing a short-term bottom? Yes, I do. But I also said that back on February 5th when we were at nearly the same level we’re at today. In that time, we’ve had nearly two months of options expire. Slowly accumulating shares, on the other hand, avoids that time pressure. When a stock is nearing a major level like its 200-week SMA, 50-month EMA and remains a key player in the AI trade, that approach makes a lot more sense to me.

If MSFT puts in a strong weekly close below the 200-week SMA, I’ll look to protect my position. Otherwise, I’ll continue adding on down days near that level and look to collar the position once the stock finally starts to bounce.

MSFT Weekly Chart

For more market analysis and technical break downs, check out the Tuesday Top Trade video below.