Amazon Analogs

RLT Newsletter 4.19.26

After three blowout bullish weeks in a row, I would not be surprised to see some weakness or consolidation come into the market this week. However, I fully expect that weakness to get bought up. FOMO feels extreme right now, and the bulls are clearly expecting this to keep running. Anyone who missed the last two weeks is likely looking for any dip to get exposure. Because of that, I don’t expect pullbacks to be very deep across most names. Buyers will likely step in aggressively at key support levels.

The SPY chart is stretched in the short term and sitting near resistance if look at the linear parallel channel from the 2022 highs. That said, the larger channel that has contained this entire bull market since the 2009 lows still sits overhead, closer to the $720 area. We are continuing to track the dot-com analog fairly closely, which suggests that any weakness back into the prior all-time high zone around $690 to $700 should get bought. If that holds, a push toward $720 would be the next upside move.

If this scenario continues to play out, we could still have two to three more months of bullish price action before volatility starts to expand to the downside.

SPY Linear Daily Chart & Channel

At the same time, a lot of charts are extremely extended. What I’m trying to figure out now is whether we are entering something more like a 2020-style melt-up, where everything continues to rip for months, or if we are much closer to a major top. The consensus online, at least from what I’m seeing, seems very polarized. It’s either a face-ripping rally that lasts much longer, or we are right at the edge of a significant reversal. There doesn’t seem to be much middle ground.

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One chart I spent time on this weekend was AMZN. It has ripped higher alongside the rest of big tech and is now sitting just below all-time highs, despite being down nearly 20% not long ago. What stands out is how closely this price action mirrors the 2018 to 2020 period.

Back in 2018, AMZN experienced a drawdown of roughly 36%, followed by a long, grinding recovery that eventually led to new highs. It then broke back below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages before launching into a sharp, vertical move that reclaimed highs, consolidated briefly, and then continued higher for several months.

In 2025, we saw a similar structure. AMZN dropped about 33%, recovered into new highs, then broke down below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages before ripping higher again. Now it’s once again approaching all-time highs.

If this analog continues to track, the next step would be a breakout to new highs, followed by a brief consolidation, and then a strong continuation move, potentially driven by earnings. Based on Fibonacci extensions, that would open the door to a move toward $290 in the near term and potentially $370 later this year.

The bears will point out that we saw a similar all-time high trap in July 2021, where price pushed back near highs before rolling over into the 2022 bear market. That’s a fair point. The difference, if this is truly a 2020-style move, is that price needs to continue making new all-time highs in a more vertical fashion.

There are clear invalidation signals to watch. If weakness comes in and does not get bought quickly, if earnings trigger a gap down instead of continuation, or if price rotates back toward the long-term moving averages around $225, then this analog is likely not playing out.

This type of move is relatively rare, and I’m not fully convinced the current macro environment supports it. But the similarities are hard to ignore, and it’s something worth tracking closely, especially if AMZN starts to show strength into earnings next week and gives us a bullish gap higher.

AMZN Daily Chart with 2020 Analog