So far, the market has held exactly where it should have.
SPY touched back into its prior all-time high at $760.40 on Tuesday and bounced tentatively on Wednesday. QQQ did not quite fill its lower gap at $701.59 and just missed the 100-day SMA, which is pushing higher each day and is up to $704.34 right now.
SPY Daily Chart
I am still totally open to a gap fill, but I would rather we do not get a solid close below the 100-day SMA on QQQ. If we do close below the 100-day SMA, we need to regain it the next day. Otherwise, things could get dicey for the bulls.
While the market is not doing much as a whole and is moving incredibly sideways from a zoomed-out perspective, it is holding many of the key supports that it needs to. That means, for now at least, I do not see any real reason to be overly bearish, yet.
In fact, the risk/reward for many of these 100-day and 200-day SMA setups is fairly solid.
QQQ at this level does have a lot of overhead resistance that it will have to push through, but it offers pretty solid R:R considering that below the 100-day SMA, the short-term bullish thesis starts to break down. The main overhead target is $729.28. Keep in mind there is still a gap at $713.14, which may act as resistance.
QQQ Daily Chart
We seem to still be in a rotational market where we see software weak and AI strong. Something has to sell of for something else to pump. That’s not the sign of strong bull strength. It leads to an overall choppy market and one that is more difficult for swing trading.
This is a market to buy low and sell high in. It is a great market for credit spreads and a great market for put sales.
When we look at the Trillion Dollar Titans, we saw that NVDA carried a lot of the market today, but once again rejected at the $228 resistance level. We need to see a strong close above that level to signal that NVDA’s retest was simply that, a move that filled its gap and bounced strongly. If that close happens it could be very similar to what happened on the May 29th 2025 earnings report.
NVDA Daily Chart
AAPL came within pennies of its unfilled gap above, a level that I think should act as resistance. GOOGL and AMZN, on the other hand, are sitting right on their key moving averages, the 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA respectively. They have a decent amount of upside and could see nice pops if the market decides to bounce and hold support.
If we break those averages, the short-term bullish thesis is broken, and they too are likely in for more choppy downside price action.
GOOGL Daily Chart
The big name on everyone’s mind right now is AVGO, which just reported earnings in Wednesday’s post-market session.
As of now, it is gapping down about 5%, just below the entirety of last quarter’s price action.
While this is not the biggest gap in the world, from a technical level it will have broken the 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, and gapped down below 90 days of consolidation. This is coming after a devastating bear gap from the all-time highs.
I would expect AVGO to eventually trend lower down into the low $300 zone if we open below $350. If that happens, it may actually be the best-case scenario for position trades and long term buys.
Buying AVGO off the 100-day SMA would be a solid long-term buy zone with great R:R after a 40% correction. Obviously, anything can happen from here, including it opening green and eliminating all of the bearish activity happening right now.
That would be bullish, at least in the short term, and would have me targeting $389 and the gaps above.
AVGO Daily Chart
All in all, the markets are holding.
We have names like AMZN, GOOGL, and CAT holding on to key support while MSFT, AAPL, and META are grinding higher.
On the AI trade, we can see ASML, AMD, CSCO, TSM, KLAC, SNDK, GEV, VRT, LITE, AAOI, and more all hovering at a key moving average after a decent drawdown. The stage is set for some kind of rally.
The sentiment on this market is terrible from an anecdotal look at X and how traders are feeling. The chop has done its job. It has frustrated traders, worn down bulls, and made a lot of people question whether the next move is ever coming.
The R:R setups are here.
Now it is time to see if the bulls can actually show up, or if September will live up to its name and become another month of the downward chop fest.