The second newsletter I published on Substack was on January 29, 2026, titled Hi-Yo Silver, Away, a throwback to The Lone Ranger. In that article, I called the exact top in SLV, which turned into one of the best short trades of my life. I based the analysis on the 2011 and 1980 silver tops.
If you missed it, check out the original article below.
Hi-Yo Silver, Away
Thursday was an absolutely bonkers day in the market. META gapped up massively while MSFT gapped down just as hard. Tech (minus the memory segment of semiconductors, of course) was hit with a sledgehammer, while oil stocks continued to rocket higher.
Over the following months, I remained bearish to neutral on SLV based on my 2011 analog. Now, nine months later, almost to the day, silver may be setting up for another long trade using that same analysis.
The 2011 Analog Is Back in Play
In September 2011, SLV sold off sharply but found a low just above the 100-week SMA (orange arrow). We saw something similar this summer, when July’s low formed just before the 100-day SMA. Both bounces rallied roughly 25% to 30% off the lows (blue arrow) before topping out and eventually falling to new lows.
This time, SLV has touched the 100-week SMA, both on our present-day chart and in the 2011 analog (teal arrow). This is the first test of the 100-week SMA since the blow-off top began in February 2024.
If the 2011 analog continues to play out, the risk/reward here looks pretty solid. The upside target is a new high above the $64.31 pivot (green arrow), representing roughly 33% upside from the 100-day SMA.
In 2011, SLV briefly wicked 7% below the 100-day SMA before finding its footing. Even using that downside as a guide, the setup still offers roughly 4:1 risk/reward if the target is reached.
Personally, I’ll use protective puts if SLV closes below the 100-week SMA on a weekly chart. Alternatively, a stop roughly 7% below the entry area would give the trade some room to work while keeping the risk defined.
Gold: Flush or Rush
The gold chart looks like it could have at least one more low into the 100-week SMA. If silver moves with gold, that could push SLV lower before the next meaningful bounce.
For that reason, I want to give my SLV trade plenty of time to develop. I am using shares and longer-dated call options to give it room to work.
In 2011, SLV took about 60 days to reach its target. This time around, I would want to give the trade roughly twice as long, or 120 days. A potential 33% move over that timeframe is not a bad setup in my book.
I will be looking to buy gold in the $3,888 to $3,500 range. I think that area could offer an attractive long-term risk/reward setup for a move to new highs.
The 2011 SLV analog has worked for over a year now, and until that correlation breaks, I’ll continue to treat it as a case of history repeating itself. As always, with proper downside protection and solid risk/reward, I’m comfortable taking the long setup. I can either lose small or win big.
