Monday’s gap was a pretty bearish gap on the QQQ. It was a weekly gap since it happened on a Monday, and it was below the daily 100-day SMA. We faded for most of the day because, luckily for the bulls, the gap was into a very solid support level. On the intraday move we saw a perfect 10/10 double bottom right off the $701.59 support level I’ve been watching since the gap happened back in July. It was a great day for fades, but some swing trades, especially in the AI space, took a hit.
QQQ 15 Min Chart
QQQ has further solidified $700 as the key level to watch on the chart. If it closes below there at any point in the next week or two, the odds of it hitting the 200-day SMA go up quite a bit. Until then, we likely stay in the chop zone.
QQQ Daily Chart
In 2026 we’ve been in the chop zone for most of the year. Looking at SPY and QQQ, we’ve only had 63 days in April and May, and then 4 days in July, where the market was really trending nicely higher. Everything else has been choppy pullbacks. So if it feels like it’s been a choppy year, you’re right. We’ve had 190 choppy days against 67 trending days.
SPY Daily Chart
Much of the chop comes from the fact that when this market does move, it moves aggressively and vertically, like we saw off the May lows and the April 2025 lows. The market is still digesting those moves and figuring out whether current levels are sustainable and whether higher prices are justified. As long as we hold key support, higher prices are certainly possible. But if we break today’s lows, the odds of a weak September and October go up dramatically.
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin saw some bullish action Monday ahead of the CLARITY vote happening on September 15th. Tuesday’s vote isn’t final passage, it’s a cloture vote to open debate. If it doesn’t pass, the bill is dead for 2026. If it does pass, I think we see a decent move higher, at least short term, since it opens the door for the act getting passed. Right now the odds of that happening are pretty low.
From a price perspective, we’re still tracking the 2023 price action closely. We ran up hard and rejected off the 120-day SMA on the 3-day chart. The 2023 analog says we should get a drop into the $70,000 region, and then eventually break higher above the 120-day SMA on the 3-day chart before consolidating between 80k and 90k for the next several months.
This sets up a solid trade thesis if it plays out. The dip is buyable into the $71,000 to $67,000 zone if we get there. As long as price holds above $65,000, the bullish setup remains viable. If instead it breaks and closes above the 120-day SMA on the 3-day chart, now at $80,400, I’ll add to my position after that close.
BTC 3 Day Chart with 2023 Analog
