Monday Market Milestones
RLT Newsletter
QQQ filled the gap at $682.77 on Friday after breaking the key support level at $686, closing almost exactly on the anchored VWAP from the March lows.
The chart looks weak right now, and I can absolutely see a scenario where QQQ keeps sliding over the next week or two. That said, the evidence still points to this being a buyable dip within a healthy bull market correction, not the start of a major bear market.
It helps to remember where this correction came from. We just went through one of the steepest advances in market history. A meaningful pullback and period of consolidation is completely healthy.
More importantly, this has been a controlled correction, not a disorderly unwind. Instead of panic selling across every sector, we’ve mostly seen money rotate out of the biggest winners and into areas that had been lagging.
Banks, transportation, industrials, and even real estate have all shown relative strength during this pullback. That’s exactly what you want to see in a healthy market.
If those sectors start breaking down alongside technology, my concern level will start to tick higher. For now, this looks like institutional money rotating out of extended leaders and into areas with better risk-reward. That’s what disciplined investors do.
QQQ Daily Chart
Earnings Will Decide the Next Move
The charts still suggest there may be one more leg lower before this correction is complete, though one gap and one candle can change everything.
With one of the biggest earnings weeks of the quarter ahead, all eyes are back on AI and mega-cap tech.
Nearly every major tech name outside of AAPL has been under heavy pressure lately. If that continues, I think QQQ reaches my green buy zone without much trouble.
The reports I’m watching closest this week:
BE
MSFT
META
ARM
QCOM
HOOD
VRT
AMZN
RDDT
AAPL
Of those, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple have the greatest potential to move both the Nasdaq and the broader market. Pay attention to Wednesday’s and Thursday’s after-hours reports.
Key Levels to Watch
If QQQ bounces on Monday, it’ll be doing so from an area where multiple technical support levels converge.
The anchored VWAP from the March lows sits almost exactly where Friday closed, and the May 6 gap fill provides additional support just beneath current prices.
Should buyers step in, the first major resistance is the overhead gap near $703. Above that sits the Point of Control from the entire rally off the March lows, making roughly $703 to $708 a significant resistance zone where I’d expect sellers to step in once again.
Bitcoin and Gold
Outside of equities, Bitcoin and gold continue to hold up relatively well.
Both charts are still consolidating near recent lows, and while each could make one more push lower before finding a bottom, they’re also approaching a risk-reward level that’s getting more attractive.
For long-term investors, I still think this is an area for slowly accumulating positions, while keeping some dry powder in case we get that lower low. Neither chart looks ready to explode higher just yet, but both are getting closer to what I believe will become a much more durable low.
Gold Daily Chart
