Monday Market Pulse
RLT Newsletter 5/3/2026
SPY and QQQ gapped up again on Friday, continuing what has been an absolutely blistering rally over the past month.n SPY pushed right into the 1.382 extension of the March drop and printed a pretty clean reversal candle at that level. That also lines up almost perfectly with where the 1999 analog started to run into resistance.
SPY Daily Chart
Does that mean we have to sell off next week? Not necessarily. I still think there’s room for more upside, especially if QQQ continues to lead. Remember in 1999 when QQQ massively outperformed SPY? Today, big tech makes up such a large portion of both indices that kind of divergence is harder to get, but we are seeing a smaller version of it right now.
QQQ closed Friday with a strong bullish candle at the highs, while SPY printed more of a gravestone doji, which is a reversal signal. For me, the line in the sand is simple. If we break below Thursday’s low on both SPY and QQQ, which is the short term support, we are starting what will likely be a buyable dip. If we’re going to keep going vertical, that level needs to hold.
QQQ pushing into the 1.681 extension from the April drop comes in around $686. That would be roughly a 23% to 24% move off the lows in just over a month, and a level where I’ll be actively locking in gains and dialing back aggression.
Since the April 8th gap I’ve been buying strong names on shallow dips, but at some point short term momentum starts to fade. The 8, 9, and 10 EMA eventually give way to the 20, then the 50, and so on. What’s notable right now is that QQQ hasn’t even touched the 10 EMA. That tells you just how stretched this move is.
That said, history, especially with big tech, shows that “too stretched” doesn’t always mean “about to drop.”
Look at the 2025 move off the lows. It went more than 100 days before even closing below the 20 EMA, and when it finally did, it was brief before pushing higher for another three months. Drop that analog onto today’s price action and you could easily see a short consolidation around that 1.681 extension, followed by another leg higher through the summer.
I don’t think that’s the most likely outcome, but it’s a very real possibility. With this much liquidity and FOMO still sitting on the sidelines, shallow pullbacks can persist longer than most expect.
QQQ 2025 Analog
What outcome and analog we see from here really depends on the Trillion Dollar Titans.
If NVDA holds $193 and turns higher, that’s a strong signal this market isn’t done. In that scenario, a push into the $230 to $240 range is very much on the table. Lose $193 and it likely drops back into a chop range, increasing the odds of broader consolidation.
AAPL gave us a decent bearish reversal on Friday after its earnings gap. However, if it can hold $273 and reclaim Friday’s upper wick, that opens the door for a solid continuation move.
GOOGL is a rocket ship higher right now. The $400 level looks like a magnet, and beyond that I’m watching the $425 area. If GOOGL is hitting those targets, it’s hard to imagine the broader market takes a tumble.
AMZN is consolidating at all time highs. As long as it holds $255, the low from Thursday, the 2020 analog remains in play and the door stays open for significantly higher prices. A breakout from this range supports the case for continued upside across the market.
If these four names all take the bullish path, it’s difficult to build a strong case for a meaningful pullback. In that environment, trailing stops and with strength continues to make the most sense.
If we start to see key levels break across multiple names, that’s your signal a larger consolidation is likely underway.
One other thing worth noting is the continued shift further out on the risk curve.
Capital is rotating into higher beta, more speculative areas again. GME started to break out on Friday. Nuclear names that exploded in 2025 are starting to catch bids again. We’re also seeing early movement back into some of the more beaten down high beta tech names, including quantum computing. On top of that, there are some really solid setups developing in rare earth metals, another group that had massive runs last year.
There’s a clear theme here. We’re starting to see echoes of last year’s price action show up across multiple areas of the market. Because of that, I’m paying close attention to names that not only have strong technical setups right now, but also showed leadership during the 2025 run.