The Market Is Pushing Higher, But So Is the Risk
RLT Newsletter
The SPY and QQQ found support at their 10-EMAs on Thursday morning and rallied throughout the day. Right now, it looks like the market wants to push to another all-time high and continue adding to these divergences. I still do not think the QQQ target of $767, which is the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, is off the table before any larger drawdown. That would imply roughly another 3% upside from current levels before a more meaningful correction begins.
We saw several key support levels hold on Thursday, and as long as we get some follow-through buying, I think another push higher to start out June is very possible.
QQQ Daily Chart
GOOGL: Fifth Wave in Play
For that scenario to play out, I would like to see GOOGL hold its recent low and push into a new high. It narrowly missed its gap fill this week before bouncing from a major support level. I think we could be in a fifth-wave move that has the potential to carry up toward $430. Another 15% move higher in one of the largest companies in the world would certainly not be bearish for the broader market.
The trade thesis on GOOGL is now based on several factors lining up at once: the anchored VWAP, the earnings gap, the volume trap, and the Elliott Wave count. GOOGL retraced to the 38.2% level of the first through third waves, which is a classic support zone for a fourth-wave pullback. It helps that the anchored VWAP from the low and a strong earnings gap also sit in that area.
Remember, earnings were very solid just a few weeks ago, and this was essentially a retest of that bullish retest gap. Thursday’s bullish candle also closed back above the second-largest bearish volume candle on the chart in 2026. That says that bears are now trapped.
There is still significant resistance around $380, but if GOOGL can push through that level, I think it has room to make a strong run to complete this wave structure. If it breaks below $355, however, that would be an early warning sign that a larger top may have formed and that a deeper correction is underway. A break below the 100-day SMA would further increase the probability that the current wave has topped and needs a more substantial retracement.
GOOGL Daily Chart
MU: Wave 5 of 5 of 5 or 3
If we are talking Elliott Wave setups, MU has one of the cleanest patterns I have seen in a long time, and it has now rallied directly into a very common fifth-wave target zone.
One way to project a fifth-wave target is by measuring the entire net move leading into the wave and applying Fibonacci extensions. I have had this level marked on my MU chart for months, and it landed right around $1,071, an area the stock tagged this week before rejecting.
What makes this even more interesting is that we now have five waves up from the April low, and the final fifth wave itself appears to contain five smaller waves. In other words, we may be looking at wave 5 of 5 of 5 within a larger wave 3 structure.
Of course, parabolic moves can continue longer than anyone expects and completely ignore Fibonacci levels, as it has throughout this rally. But I think this setup is worth paying attention to because a larger correction in MU would likely have implications for the broader market.
I know my man Jerremy Newsome also snagged some puts on Thursday’s gap-down. I like the short setup here as long as risk is managed very tightly. Keep in mind earnings are only about 20 days away, so there is not much time before that catalyst arrives.
MU Daily Chart
Clash of the Titans
NVDA once again held key support on Thursday, but it is definitely testing that level repeatedly. A break below $210 would not be good for the bulls. We are seeing pockets of weakness develop among the Trillion Dollar Titans and, of course, across much of the market outside of technology as well.
MSFT has given back a large portion of its recent gains, and I am glad I took profits when I did because I no longer see much edge in that chart. AMZN is hanging onto its anchored VWAP from the lows by a thread, and if that level breaks, I think it could see a fairly quick drop to the gaps below.
AVGO gapped down directly into support and held, at least for now. I still do not have a strong read on that chart, but a close below Thursday’s candle would be a bearish development for sure.
Then there is META, which seems completely incapable of reclaiming either its daily or weekly 100 SMA.
Bitcoin: Approaching Interesting Levels
I will have a full Bitcoin video out tomorrow, but here is the short version of my current thinking.
Bitcoin is now trading around its 200-week SMA, a historically important support level where bear markets have often started to bottom. While wicks below this area are common, this zone has consistently served as a major long-term support level. In prior cycles, including 2015, 2020, and 2022, Bitcoin pushed through similar support zones by as much as 30% before ultimately bottoming.
Back in August 2025, I wrote that Bitcoin was much closer to a major top than most people realized. For the first time, I am starting to feel the opposite.
I do not think Bitcoin has bottomed yet. In fact, I think there is a high probability we see at least the mid-$50,000s before this bear market is over. However, we are starting to approach levels where bullish swing trades and longer-term position trades begin to have edge once again, especially for traders who are comfortable managing risk through covered calls, protective puts, and collar strategies.
Looking at the massive head-and-shoulders pattern, the measured move target points almost directly into the $53,000 area. That level also happens to line up with a major horizontal support zone. In addition, the $54,000 area is near Bitcoin’s Realized Price, a metric that has historically been tested during every major bear market.
If Bitcoin breaks below the 200-week SMA, retests it from underneath, and fails, the $54,000 area becomes the start of my accumulation zone for longer-term positions.
Could Bitcoin fall even further? Absolutely.
I think there is a realistic possibility that Bitcoin drops all the way into $38,000. That would undercut the IBIT lows and fit the historical tendency of many major technology IPOs to retrace their entire initial move before establishing a durable bottom. The 100-month SMA also resides in that area, making it an extremely compelling long-term support zone.
If Bitcoin gets there, the narrative will be awful. “Bitcoin is dead” will dominate headlines, sentiment will be crushed, and fear will likely be at extreme levels.
Historically, that has been the perfect recipe for a major Bitcoin bottom.
For now, my base case remains a move into at least the mid-$50,000s sometime between July and October before this bear market fully runs its course.
BTCUSD Daily Chart
