Trump Pump
RLT Newsletter 6.15.26
The peace deal did come through, and the markets responded exactly as I expected by ripping higher. If there is one thing I have learned over the years, it is not to fade Trump news. He tweeted the lows in both 2025 and 2026, and it looks like its happening again.
Thursday’s bullish price action was the first clue that a low could be forming, and Monday’s gap higher provided the confirmation. Last week, both IWM and RSP pushed to new all-time highs, so it now appears that SPY and QQQ are preparing to follow suit.
When I go through the major technology charts, many of which I am currently long, I still see patterns that could break down if the market loses momentum. Several names are simply trading within some variation of a bear flag, until key resistance gets broken.
SPY Daily Chart
NVDA has rallied directly into the $212 resistance area. This level represents the neckline of its double-top pattern, and until we see a close above $215, the possibility of a move back down toward the open gap and long-term moving averages near $195-190 remains very much alive. If NVDA closes below Monday’s candle low this week, that bearish scenario becomes considerably more likely.
NVDA Daily Chart
AAPL also still looks like it could be forming a bear flag before making another move lower into its long-term moving averages. However, as long as the $287 support level holds, the $301 gap fill remains a high-probability target for the bull trade.
AAPL Daily Chart
GOOGL once again found heavy resistance near the $373 level and remains trapped in a frustrating sideways range. A gap above $373 would be a very bullish development. If that occurs, I would look to add to the position and target the $383 resistance in the short term.
GOOGL Daily Chart
MSFT gave us a strong gap-and-go after ten consecutive bearish candles and is following the March pattern almost perfectly. The stock had fallen nearly 18% in just ten trading days, so some type of bounce, even if it ultimately proves to be of the dead-cat variety, is warranted. If this analog continues to play out, I would expect some additional consolidation before a push higher toward the $415 level. At this point, MSFT should not be breaking below its 200-day SMA. I also do not want to see it lose Monday’s low, as that would be the first meaningful warning sign that the trade is not unfolding as expected.
MSFT Daily Chart
Overall, I continue to lean bullish simply because the larger trend remains firmly intact. If the names discussed above can continue to hold support and generate follow-through buying, that should provide enough fuel to push the broader market higher.
Add in the fact that banks, consumer staples, materials, and several other sectors are beginning to show slightly bullish setups, and I think the case for another several weeks of bullish price action is becoming stronger by the day.
Best newsletter ever