The past three days have been extremely uneventful on the QQQ and decently bearish on the SPY, RSP and DIA. SPY and IWM are back down to some key support levels making it go time for bulls if they are going to show back up. We’re seeing a continuation of the bearish factors that continue to plague this market, which include oil breaking out and ripping higher, and long dated bond yields breaking out as well.
QQQ Daily Chart
This bullish push in long dated yields is happening despite the $6 billion Treasury buyback operation that was announced. It seems like the bond market wants to see just how much intervention we’re going to get from the Treasury. With bonds tanking and oil ripping, it’s only a matter of time until one of two things happens: either we get larger intervention and those things reverse, letting the market grind higher, or equities as a whole start to correct.
SPY Daily Chart
Tech Stories of the Day
There were two big stories in tech today. Meta announced it’s launching Meta Muse, its first personal AI agent, and Apple announced its new iPhone lineup, which included a $2,000+ foldable iPhone.
I’m an Apple user and I like their products, but Apple is doing anything but innovating these days. Pretty sure Samsung launched a foldable phone over five years ago. That said, innovating or not, Apple makes $128 billion a year in income (not revenue), and if they can sell a lot of these foldable phones for two to three grand, with an upgraded Siri that’s no longer dumb as a box of rocks, the stock should do quite well.
Apple
For a longer term trade on AAPL, I’d still like to buy lower at the 200-day SMA, which would put it down about 17% from the highs, a historically solid buying zone. The next big buy zone for a long term hold would be the 100-week SMA, roughly a 30% pullback, a great historical buy zone.
Apple loves to pull back 30% every few years, and pulls back 15-20% at least once a year. We already got a 15% pullback to start the year and a 13% pullback in the middle of the year in June. I think the buy-low crowd on AAPL is going to have to stay patient for now. It does have very solid support at $310-$304, which it held on today’s news.
AAPL Daily Chart
META
META had a very solid gap up today, and as much as I hate on the stock and the chart (mostly because it’s been a choppy, trapy mess for over a year now), it did close back above the 100-week SMA. Wednesday’s candle can be used as a short term risk mitigation level, since it’s a high volume candle sitting right at the 100-week SMA.
I do think that if the QQQ and AI tech start selling off along with the SPY and the broader market in a fear driven event, META won’t be spared. If META closes back below $600 anytime soon, this was just another trap, and it’s back to the straight up, straight down choppy status quo that’s defined the price action for the last year. However, if it can hold here and break out above $680, that would be a big change to the downtrend and a positive development for the META bulls.
META Daily Chart
Overall Market Thoughts
Wednesday wasn’t a great day for the bulls. We’re seeing more chop and more of the same consolidation we’ve had since June 4th.
NVDA is pulling back a bit after teasing bulls with a possible ATH breakout. However, I’d still call NVDA bullish as long as it holds the 100-day SMA here.
GOOGL and AMZN have now gapped below key averages, which is never something you want to see as a bull. GOOGL actually gapped below its 200-day SMA on Tuesday, stopping me out of my short term swing trade. It closed back above the average, looking like a possible bear trap, then gapped below the average again today and closed with a bear candle.
The Trillion Dollar Titans look heavy right now, but if we look left on the charts, they’ve all had massive runs they need to digest. As long as they remain Magnificent Spenders with negative free cash flow, the market is going to stay wary of them. That said, they’ll be back in favor eventually, so if we do get some dips, that’s the time to plan which names you want to own and where you want to buy them.
If GOOGL really dips here, it could be a magnificent opportunity to own it before their own Muse announcement.
GOOGL Daily Chart
