Wild & Wealthy Winsday
RLT Newsletter 4/22/26
QQQ is now up nearly 18% in just 16 trading days and is trading in price discovery at new all-time highs! Calling this rally a rocket ship might actually be underselling it. This is one of the sharpest, most extended rallies in QQQ history outside of, you guessed it, 1999.
The October 1999 parallel I’ve been tracking on QQQ and SPY since April 8th is playing out quite well. In that period, QQQ significantly outperformed SPY, and we’re seeing that same dynamic take shape again with QQQ starting to pull ahead.
There are also strong similarities to the October 2014 rally, where price went vertical following roughly a 10% correction. Today’s move is even steeper in percentage terms, but the overall feel is very similar. If we follow that analog, we’re right around the point where things began to slow down and transition into a retest phase. In 2014, the market eventually pulled back to the 100-day SMA and prior all-time highs before grinding higher for several more months ahead of any meaningful drawdown. The 2014 and 1999 analogs align with a move up into the upper boundary of the long-term trendline that has contained price since the 2009 lows.
SPY 2014 & 1999 Analogs
At this point, I’m expecting something along the lines of these analogs to play out. Both are similar to each other and, more importantly, very similar to what we’re seeing right now.
Looking at major individual names, the strength feels unsustainable. ANET, a $200B company, is up roughly 54% in just 16 days. AVGO, one of the largest companies in the world at around $2 trillion, is up about 46% over the same stretch. These are extreme moves, but I’ve learned that doesn’t mean they can’t continue higher for a while before any meaningful mean reversion kicks in.
Back during the March selloff, I mentioned that we would need leadership from big tech to get the market back on its feet. That is exactly what we’re seeing now, and then some. What strengthens the bullish case is that several mega-cap names are still well below their all-time highs. If AAPL, MSFT, and META continue to recover, while leaders like NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, and AVGO keep pushing higher, this market can continue to grind higher without much resistance. However, if earnings disappoint in those names next week, the current level of extended exuberance could snap back to reality very quickly.
We are already seeing some early signs of earnings weakness in the software space. NOW lowered margin guidance and gapped down nearly 13%, dragging names like MSFT, ORCL, CRM, PANW, and CRWD lower with it. I’ll be watching closely to see how the market responds. If this weakness gets bought up and the sector recovers quickly, it will be a strong signal that the buy-the-dip mentality is still firmly in place. If not, it could be an early crack in what has been an extremely resilient rally.
NOW Post Earnings Gap
It’s been an incredible run over the past three weeks, with nearly every bullish setup delivering outsized returns. At this point, patience matters more than ever. I’m focused on waiting for the highest-quality setups rather than forcing trades in extended conditions.
With a major cluster of earnings coming up next week, including AMZN, GOOGL, META, and MSFT all reporting on the same day, I want to see how the market reacts before getting more aggressive. I have cash on the sidelines and am looking to deploy it into strength on controlled pullbacks, especially in strong names that hold key levels.
For those degenerates itching to get more skin in the game and struggling with FOMO, here are a few setups I’m considering throwing a couple of dollar bills at.
GLW: Looking for a continuation move in a strong momentum name. Tight risk, targeting a push into earnings.
BA: Hard not to like the hammer and gap-and-go, with daily moving averages acting as support. A close below Tuesday’s candle invalidates the bullish setup.
AAOI: Absolute beast of a chart. Pulled back into the 10 EMA and holding strong. This one could easily push another 25% to 30% higher. I will be using a stop below Wednesday’s candle. If it dips more, I will likely try this name again into the $100 range.
ISRG: Has lagged over the past three weeks, which isn’t a great sign, but Wednesday’s candle is strong. It also filled the gap from last October and held major support at $450. If it’s going to recover, this is the spot. A close below Wednesday’s low would be a major red flag.
UAMY, MP, CRML, and LAC have all formed large bases and look like they may be breaking out. These are names are choppy so I prefer to use puts as protection or wide stops to avoid getting shaken out. I’ll be watching for clean breaks from consolidation or controlled pullbacks into key moving averages.